Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc91913ddd1c845686047b5db928cdbeb81db6efc60e45c6026c6d29f2ef5e938
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,136,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,278,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,136,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a8d…6171backed Yes | 2c | 77,095$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 2c | 47,055$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.15 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes | 1c | 46,000$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 39,962$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 33,074$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.63 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 32,500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…c004backed Yes | 2c | 28,741$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.05 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,270$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a75cbacked Yes | 1c | 20,484$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.78 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…0ec7backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -97.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f7…514abacked Yes | 2c | 12,945$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes | 3c | 11,150$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.8 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 1c | 8,721$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…518fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,733$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de3…45b1backed Yes | 3c | 7,511$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 8c | 6,703$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.28 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d5…aac0backed Yes | 2c | 6,485$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,847$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.25 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…cc77backed Yes | 2c | 5,845$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf4…badbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,294$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a3…432bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,095$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b91…e572backed Yes | 4c | 4,700$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.7 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,629$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b07…dbe1backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec0…5ca4backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…c983backed Yes | 4c | 3,954$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,763$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…d3e9backed Yes | 1c | 3,736$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,562$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 1c | 3,541$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f9dfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,122$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…0986backed Yes | 3c | 2,884$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -85%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3a…e1b6backed Yes | 2c | 2,273$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…7adcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,215$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…1aa6backed Yes | 2c | 2,171$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,794$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8c…ddecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,681$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,574$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…d709backed Yes | 1c | 1,531$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…9cabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,487$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d6…3ef3backed Yes | 4c | 1,384$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…7da2backed Yes | 2c | 1,279$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…1f98backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +315.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…4575backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…0d99backed Yes | 2c | 1,147$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…aa26backed Yes | 5c | 1,125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…43d8backed Yes | 6c | 1,085$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee0…589bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,061$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cd94backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6549…5401backed Yes | 3c | 999.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5c…384abacked Yes | 2c | 937.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff2…d6e4backed Yes | 2c | 914.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…8d91backed Yes | 1c | 829.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b0d1backed Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…9f89backed Yes | 3c | 763.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560b…85d7backed Yes | 1c | 759.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 7c | 712.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7719…fbc8backed Yes | 8c | 674.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…d3aabacked Yes | 2c | 613.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…0e44backed Yes | 4c | 555.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 4c | 499.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf71…78c9backed Yes | 2c | 495.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…ec8bbacked Yes | 7c | 456.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…4720backed Yes | 3c | 394.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad36…2e8bbacked Yes | 10c | 303.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…dbbabacked Yes | 5c | 291.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa721…b772backed Yes | 8c | 251.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3617…6173backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 9c | 233.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…d905backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…1698backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.