Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x906b5044d350335aea20ddcd6a01b854fe549b07430d23e50139ed39b35fe821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,988,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,616,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,988,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 58,480$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.49 | 101 | 5.9%6 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a75cbacked Yes | 1c | 53,252$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.06 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 1c | 47,193$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.43 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 35,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 34,466$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…0ec7backed Yes | 0c | 31,246$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -97.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…d709backed Yes | 1c | 27,569$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.58 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 26,195$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.23 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…0752backed Yes | 0c | 25,888$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 2c | 19,520$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.18 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d9…5ababacked Yes | 2c | 18,024$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,543$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380a…4741backed Yes | 2c | 13,583$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,285$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 13,155$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…00dabacked Yes | 0c | 11,600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,999$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…b3d9backed Yes | 2c | 9,729$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…daf3backed Yes | 5c | 9,192$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.58 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…d3e9backed Yes | 0c | 9,136$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3065…1c02backed Yes | 1c | 8,742$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…0986backed Yes | 1c | 7,731$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -85%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 3c | 7,530$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.86 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7852…44febacked Yes | 1c | 7,050$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8c…7a9cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,050$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 0c | 6,975$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7719…fbc8backed Yes | 2c | 6,665$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…2662backed Yes | 1c | 6,162$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 6,066$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342a…7704backed Yes | 2c | 5,835$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…4993backed Yes | 1c | 5,430$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6631…f242backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2e…e4cebacked Yes | 3c | 4,768$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,385$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 4,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…ef5bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7f…ac33backed Yes | 3c | 3,864$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23f…8b10backed Yes | 1c | 3,862$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…2b36backed Yes | 1c | 3,846$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b91…e572backed Yes | 2c | 3,839$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,182$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…7fedbacked Yes | 1c | 3,101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…197abacked Yes | 1c | 3,018$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…8a1dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…7adcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,819$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,531$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked Yes | 1c | 2,436$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3a…e1b6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4521…4e6cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6a…188bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7611…d9aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8c…ddecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes | 1c | 1,695$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…417bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,540$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,414$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,363$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…e7e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,348$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…556dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,161$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…0cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…7da1backed Yes | 1c | 1,067$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…0e44backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ae…dd03backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…c0f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…4a4abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e16…6edcbacked Yes | 4c | 999.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4b…8d4abacked Yes | 1c | 961.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 3c | 848.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…ec17backed Yes | 3c | 620.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 572.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…eef4backed Yes | 4c | 555.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84df…9552backed Yes | 4c | 526.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c4…b517backed Yes | 3c | 499.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…43d8backed Yes | 2c | 495.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.