Music · resolved market
Will Estonia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf708be5ae188e01eada6d3346071a160e93b6e1a64cf6f4cc2c15835755e1ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 15c | 24,707$3,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,656.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 15c | 6,458$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.87 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 13c | 3,367$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.65 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 9c | 2,424$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.02 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed Yes | 14c | 2,362$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.36 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 18c | 1,664$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.86 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed Yes | 14c | 1,550$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcb…36f0backed Yes | 14c | 1,453$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…edd3backed Yes | 13c | 1,225$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.05 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…f71abacked Yes | 12c | 1,045$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 12c | 1,042$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 9c | 999.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 12c | 998.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…6a60backed Yes | 13c | 937.83$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 922.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 13c | 743.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5607…1d7abacked Yes | 14c | 717.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 13c | 546.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…bdf7backed Yes | 14c | 496.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 10c | 453.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 13c | 390$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 382.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 8c | 314.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…b0f7backed Yes | 7c | 299.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…2916backed Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…37fdbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 11c | 199.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…8fc6backed Yes | 13c | 193.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…7d39backed Yes | 9c | 175$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…b2e7backed Yes | 12c | 170.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 9c | 161.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85c…f1f0backed Yes | 32c | 157.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 154.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1068…445dbacked Yes | 11c | 139.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…28eebacked Yes | 15c | 131.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…1116backed Yes | 9c | 129.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…4426backed Yes | 13c | 126.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…f995backed Yes | 10c | 123$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 10c | 119$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes | 11c | 118.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…b6cabacked Yes | 13c | 116.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 19c | 106.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…4d51backed Yes | 17c | 92.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba08…afa5backed Yes | 13c | 90.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…ac2dbacked Yes | 15c | 87.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…4b19backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Estonia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?this page
- Will Albania be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Belgium be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Czechia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Finland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will France be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Israel be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?Yes won
- Will Italy be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Malta be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Netherlands be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Sweden be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Switzerland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Ukraine be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will another country be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.