TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Estonia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,511 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes15c24,707$3,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,656.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes15c6,458$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.877723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes13c3,367$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.6514835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed Yes9c2,424$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.02267.7%2 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-86.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeb39…c696backed Yes14c2,362$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.361816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-51.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes1c1,800$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.653030%9 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes18c1,664$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.868140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed Yes14c1,550$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.851266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fcb…36f0backed Yes14c1,453$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bda…edd3backed Yes13c1,225$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.051315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x528f…f71abacked Yes12c1,045$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes12c1,042$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8810235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes9c999.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes12c998.64$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.22817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc011…6a60backed Yes13c937.83$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.982123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c922.16$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5224732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes13c743.87$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+55.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5607…1d7abacked Yes14c717.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf002…6221backed Yes13c546.72$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.07520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd134…bdf7backed Yes14c496.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes10c453.81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.719939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes13c390$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.46742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+67.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c382.53$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.314629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes8c314.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.511910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf968…84bdbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.34928.6%14 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e7…b0f7backed Yes7c299.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cdd…2916backed Yes10c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.61225%3 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bc…37fdbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes7c199.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.715119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes11c199.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54955.1%27 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5be7…8fc6backed Yes13c193.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd892…7d39backed Yes9c175$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ece…b2e7backed Yes12c170.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed Yes9c161.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.67540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd85c…f1f0backed Yes32c157.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c154.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5310517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1068…445dbacked Yes11c139.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1c1d…28eebacked Yes15c131.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4215…1116backed Yes9c129.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.44728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…4426backed Yes13c126.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes15c125$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.285738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x869b…f995backed Yes10c123$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes10c119$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.469335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes11c118.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cb…b6cabacked Yes13c116.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Yes19c106.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5232backed Yes19c105$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.851838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e2…4d51backed Yes17c92.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba08…afa5backed Yes13c90.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+432.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6f…ac2dbacked Yes15c87.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4406…4b19backed Yes15c75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.253740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.