TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcdd7…b90f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
105
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+187.7%+$52.99
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+27.9%+$21.82
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+69.5%+$82
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$68.24
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$47.73
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.21
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$40.5
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$113.22
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$241.62
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.8
Israel strike on Iran on June 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.2
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$64
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+47.1%+$28.24
All 16 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$41
Will Solana reach $160 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will XRP reach $2.20 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$104
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+53.8%+$42
Will XRP reach $2.20 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+37%+$27
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,280Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+71.9%+$920
Will XRP reach $2.5 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.4
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$135.42
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$48.04
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$104.24
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$20.7
Will Solana dip to $140 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Bitcoin all time high in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$111
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+53.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$75
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+203%+$60.3
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.47
Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$63
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+117.4%+$135
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+900%+$540
Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+244.1%+$372.55
Will Trump's approval rating be between 54% and 56% on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$25.1
Will Trump's approval rating be between 56% and 58% on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$15.9
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+28.1%+$74.5
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST1225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-58.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$19.99
Will Pope Francis rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$90.76
OpenAI browser by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$52.78
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will @Grok resume replying by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.99
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+100%+$55.5
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$37
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.77
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST80%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST70%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+55.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Adesanya vs. Imavovbacked Imavov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+138.1%+$27.62
Magomedov vs. Pagebacked Magomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$136.09
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+194.1%+$59.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$40.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$72
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.