Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcfc2c143ec697df34414e5d4ae3e9d8a5cb9f7a84f30b0aa781f68878b14894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 15c | 10,004$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 10c | 6,482$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 13c | 5,324$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 7c | 3,780$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.81 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed Yes | 12c | 1,734$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 9c | 1,482$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 76c | 1,281$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.44 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed Yes | 10c | 852.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 677.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 10c | 578.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 11c | 550$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 12c | 475.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 9c | 427.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 7c | 426.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 17c | 346.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…cb0bbacked Yes | 15c | 332.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…e31ebacked Yes | 10c | 310.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 6c | 308.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 10c | 247$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes | 9c | 215.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 193.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 190.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 182$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 9c | 116.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 11c | 112$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in April?this page
- Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?Yes won
- Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $6.00 and $6.25 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.