Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f219ebad6af9000ed3bd74c79c0d8b24fb4b47cb2614b4b4a02b810505a837
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3e4…6d84backed No | 69c | 36,116$24,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,195.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf329…d77cbacked Yes | 31c | 36,116$11,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,195.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 71c | 10,000$7,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,908.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 34c | 5,973$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 29c | 5,920$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.26 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 30c | 5,027$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.62 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 29c | 4,198$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…8ceabacked No | 69c | 3,360$2,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 28c | 3,001$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.81 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 29c | 2,499$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 30c | 1,797$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.8 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed No | 79c | 1,796$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 28c | 1,687$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 36c | 1,344$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 981.91$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.21 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…ef3dbacked Yes | 29c | 680$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…013fbacked No | 71c | 680$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 22c | 583.94$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 31c | 438.22$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 367.06$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 37c | 225.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 33c | 225.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 32c | 220.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…c284backed Yes | 25c | 174.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 26c | 173.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 66c | 168$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 66c | 156.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 66c | 151.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 29c | 149.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 73c | 146.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 138.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…8581backed Yes | 31c | 132.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf037…c690backed Yes | 35c | 130.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 126.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 24c | 120.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 118.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 115.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…959cbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…bd63backed Yes | 28c | 81.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes | 39c | 76.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 32c | 75.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 68c | 74.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…becdbacked Yes | 29c | 68.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…dcd3backed Yes | 30c | 62.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…4757backed Yes | 32c | 57.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…a0aabacked Yes | 35c | 57.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa399…71cebacked No | 70c | 50.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 29c | 45.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…bcabbacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf9…2a15backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 28c | 36.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7625…0f21backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8501…52dfbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…b3b8backed No | 70c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…374dbacked No | 72c | 27.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…c03ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c4…b9a4backed No | 69c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…6d0ebacked No | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb455…26d4backed No | 70c | 22.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 65c | 20.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 70c | 20.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…87bfbacked No | 70c | 17.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in April?this page
- Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?Yes won
- Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $6.00 and $6.25 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.