Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b86a8d9a88e088a2c99dd3ef8fe8d9343c12ab89c24119b59cb94f1fe31271b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c74…d16abacked Yes | 28c | 54,283$15,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,083.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc1…4485backed No | 72c | 54,283$39,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,083.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 24c | 9,998$2,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,602.26 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 24c | 7,114$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,371.36 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 25c | 6,550$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,940.85 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 78c | 5,000$3,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,917.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 43c | 4,583$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,596.79 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 23c | 3,372$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,606.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 20c | 3,365$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.06 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 27c | 1,675$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 72c | 1,006$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…4b41backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 78c | 666$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed Yes | 26c | 626.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 73c | 591$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 415$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.35 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 18c | 368.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 28c | 322.69$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed No | 74c | 302.94$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…5d66backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…7b8bbacked No | 76c | 263.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 23c | 251$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 15c | 236.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.95 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…c807backed Yes | 26c | 190.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 61c | 189$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 174$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.23 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…aa6abacked Yes | 31c | 161.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 143.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.59 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 20c | 129.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 25c | 122$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 76c | 111$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 107.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 14c | 103.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 19c | 103.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +415.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…c284backed Yes | 30c | 96.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes | 27c | 95.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 75c | 89.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e2…5532backed No | 71c | 88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 78.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 19c | 77.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed Yes | 26c | 76.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b9…d123backed Yes | 30c | 76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 75.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 79c | 66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…e141backed Yes | 30c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 74c | 51.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8995…13ebbacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd984…6445backed No | 73c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c4…1853backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…7078backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…a4aabacked No | 75c | 25.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 68c | 20.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277a…f143backed No | 72c | 18.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?this page
- Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $6.00 and $6.25 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.