Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x092b62f2d6420f0d599f99260c79e4ca0a7f247c5484ac1cf475932a17794294
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 4c | 11,729$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 4c | 9,070$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.83 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 7c | 6,955$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 6c | 5,127$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.38 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 2,982$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bc…9be9backed Yes | 4c | 2,779$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed Yes | 7c | 2,461$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…736abacked Yes | 6c | 2,372$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,626$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…cb8cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,058$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,038$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…af87backed Yes | 4c | 1,019$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed Yes | 3c | 852.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…6be8backed Yes | 5c | 702.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 4c | 700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…89f1backed Yes | 3c | 649.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…c393backed Yes | 4c | 644.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 625.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…becdbacked Yes | 3c | 587.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…2916backed Yes | 4c | 568.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…9165backed Yes | 5c | 465$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 6c | 441.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…e4f8backed Yes | 6c | 422$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…f06cbacked Yes | 6c | 416.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…2995backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…0c5cbacked Yes | 4c | 361$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 3c | 348$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c0…0131backed Yes | 4c | 336$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…fec7backed Yes | 4c | 289$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9b…7faabacked Yes | 6c | 275.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 6c | 266.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d8…1c46backed Yes | 4c | 237$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?this page
- Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?Yes won
- Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $6.00 and $6.25 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.