TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x32ac…d62c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
134
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: CS2, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 54 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST4022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$5,248Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+64.4%+$3,381.2
Will Elon and DOGE cut 50-100k employees in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$206.37
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than 50k employees in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$394.16
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$339.2
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$168.09
Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$78.18
Will Trump remove municipal bond tax exemption in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.84
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.04
U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$114
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,288Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,288.25
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$31.55
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$293.68
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.55
Will Donald Trump issue 100 or more executive orders in his first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$128
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$136.81
Will Trump save TikTok in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$18.17
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$17.21
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,869Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+79.2%+$1,480.74
Will Trump nominate Patrick Pizzella for Labor Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump nominate Bryan Slater for Labor Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$14
Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$27.5
Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+68.4%+$25.63
Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+160.9%+$55.5
Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+63.9%+$19.5
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Netanyahu out by 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$135
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.48
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$21.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$141
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11.3
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$973Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+34.4%+$335.14
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$38.45
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST+154.7%+$241.19
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$18
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$463Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+76.8%+$355.28
Will Israel target Tehran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$53.5
Will Israel target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+90%+$228.91
Will Israel target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$67.24
Israel military response against Iran today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$24.62
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$290.61
All 15 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2024, EST1421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+322.4%+$550.61
Will 'Wicked' gross between $125-135m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$110.54
Will 'Wicked' gross between $105-115m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$71.5
Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$33.3
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$60.44
Will 'Red One' gross more than $27m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$32.5
Will 'Red One' gross between $24-27m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$25
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$18
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+287.3%+$169.52
'Speak No Evil' grosses >$13m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2024, EDT+76.5%+$48.7
'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$63.95
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $84m and $90m 2nd weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$28.03
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$15.01
Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$28.01
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-69.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,006Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,005.68
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$436.04
Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.61
Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.07
Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.95
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+25%+$108.8
Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$481.91
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,191Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+34.1%+$406.17
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.94
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$113.71
Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.2
Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.71
All 13 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2025, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$641Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$640.9
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+566.5%+$200.93
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.98
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$387.83
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$23.4
Will U.S. GDP growth be less than -2% in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$216.9
Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.16
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 2% and 1% in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$296.32
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 0% and -1% in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$565Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+663.6%+$3,746.95
Will U.S. GDP growth be between -1% and -2% in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$386.72
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$672Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$672.16
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$807Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+129.9%+$1,048.13
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$78
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$383.4
Will Putin remain President of Russia through June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$580.74
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+71.2%+$362.9
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$72.08
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$319.45
Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+40.8%+$58
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$83.38
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$55.75
Will Russia capture Siversk before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$18
All 11 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2024, EST1040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$21
Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$115.05
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Ding · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$389
Will Game 12 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST+233.3%+$209.99
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+139.6%+$23.47
Will Game 11 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+222.6%+$135.98
Will Ding Liren win game 6 of the World Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$34.54
Will game 5 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2024, EST-100%-$129
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 5 of the World Chess Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2024, EST+42.9%+$120
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 4 of the World Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST-100%-$61.91
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+112.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,400%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The Mongolz win IEM Rio 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+2,400%+$960
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+265.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2024, EDT+265.4%+$1,084.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+146.3%+$299.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will egg prices drop this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.48
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.