Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel target an Iranian oil or gas facility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf1f5dd032aa48c800133e30efadd72f9f01ab4fbb56456304cec45b86af18a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 57c | 7,504$4,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,250.61 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 38c | 3,848$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.23 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5405…3d7cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,951$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…45e5backed Yes | 34c | 2,740$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a36dbacked No | 80c | 1,896$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 39c | 1,515$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…61fdbacked No | 68c | 1,467$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 22c | 1,282$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 15c | 1,257$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.43 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…cdc9backed Yes | 47c | 1,233$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed No | 76c | 1,200$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes | 38c | 1,139$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…fa95backed Yes | 45c | 1,073$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 59c | 1,017$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.5 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…488fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.29 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes | 47c | 952$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 24c | 949.78$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.95 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…478cbacked Yes | 19c | 931$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 37c | 873.28$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.39 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 29c | 865.41$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.88 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 57c | 864.54$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.07 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb331…1786backed No | 64c | 825.12$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 70c | 707$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd9…0c0ebacked Yes | 11c | 657.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 24c | 600$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…fb51backed Yes | 20c | 506.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 53c | 483.21$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…8aadbacked Yes | 42c | 472.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1444…90aebacked Yes | 43c | 468.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 77c | 457.19$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.15 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…e73abacked Yes | 47c | 454.53$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.75 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…c1c3backed Yes | 23c | 416$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…1138backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 53c | 399.87$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 59c | 379$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.03 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…221fbacked Yes | 27c | 368.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed No | 76c | 342.63$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf1…d5ecbacked No | 60c | 338.83$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 10c | 336.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa7…50a5backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…4e38backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccde…f241backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a3…4fbabacked Yes | 19c | 277.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…f162backed Yes | 28c | 275.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…e758backed Yes | 23c | 234.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…9d85backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 34c | 230$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed No | 57c | 226$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 24c | 221$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…df49backed Yes | 6c | 216.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…ae32backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…16debacked Yes | 60c | 204.85$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked No | 54c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 13c | 197.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 29c | 179.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…eef3backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 59c | 168.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d0…ea2cbacked No | 80c | 165$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b08…c84abacked Yes | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 160.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 12c | 151.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 43c | 150.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f5…22dabacked Yes | 50c | 148$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41d1…88ebbacked Yes | 15c | 146.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 142.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534e…2228backed Yes | 28c | 142$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…73f9backed Yes | 40c | 139.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2601…bf9dbacked No | 72c | 138.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 38c | 132.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed No | 77c | 123.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…e712backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…a889backed No | 63c | 111.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…f3a1backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…0139backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…604fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…cbacbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…3161backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0afe…a614backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…de75backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked No | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2083…2e65backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 56c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…d84ebacked No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…ea74backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…6f7fbacked No | 59c | 85.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…f302backed No | 59c | 85.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…c1a5backed No | 59c | 84.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +6.6wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked No | 57c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c5…6f87backed Yes | 42c | 78.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…7f57backed Yes | 49c | 77.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 32c | 77.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…1dd2backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel target an Iranian oil or gas facility?this page
- Will Israel target Tehran?No won
- Will Israel target an Iranian nuclear facility?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.