Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel target an Iranian nuclear facility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b89ddee9ecabe7b47eb59d392f540940e0b2e871eea4ff45587401cd224c62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 12c | 9,797$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 1c | 8,390$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 11c | 7,488$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.81 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 7c | 5,339$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.85 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 5c | 4,394$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.14 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 13c | 4,093$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.37 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 76c | 3,609$2,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.11 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 77c | 3,026$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.46 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,666$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 41c | 2,450$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,215$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 77c | 2,125$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.07 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…a2d2backed Yes | 25c | 2,033$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5405…3d7cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,841$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 8c | 1,600$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 22c | 1,575$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.82 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 7c | 1,527$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…8460backed Yes | 2c | 1,490$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 21c | 1,459$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 17c | 1,400$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…8af1backed Yes | 3c | 1,298$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 1c | 1,291$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 11c | 977.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 78c | 951.45$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.37 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 854.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…788abacked Yes | 24c | 850$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +8.0wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 690.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…7a7cbacked No | 74c | 677.32$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…fa95backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes | 24c | 574$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 16c | 508.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 14c | 470$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…488fbacked Yes | 17c | 451.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…f162backed Yes | 8c | 448$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 7c | 428$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +974.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…902bbacked Yes | 12c | 406.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 6c | 403.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 19c | 400$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaab…fc76backed Yes | 17c | 363.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 7c | 361.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 20c | 332$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 15c | 309.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 18c | 307.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 16c | 301.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…4e38backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 4c | 295.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…21f4backed Yes | 24c | 285.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…df49backed Yes | 13c | 273.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…d6c9backed Yes | 7c | 266.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 13c | 235$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc0…a09dbacked Yes | 5c | 216$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…9d85backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0708…7148backed Yes | 30c | 214.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 11c | 208.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 23c | 200.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812e…2b8abacked Yes | 10c | 200.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…f536backed Yes | 24c | 168.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…ea74backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…16debacked Yes | 12c | 155.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…1f5ebacked Yes | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…e73abacked Yes | 23c | 128.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…4b89backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked No | 56c | 93.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…6099backed Yes | 18c | 83.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…719ebacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes | 30c | 69.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…231ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…f18cbacked Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ad…316ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c4…4b5fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…7415backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel target an Iranian nuclear facility?this page
- Will Israel target Tehran?No won
- Will Israel target an Iranian oil or gas facility?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.