Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel target Tehran?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47003b210e62b30790d8ee75acfa6ac589cf63f815011f0838721b4717d81cda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 6c | 15,326$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.67 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 79c | 1,688$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.42 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…37efbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…fa95backed Yes | 21c | 950$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 20c | 862.18$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…45e5backed Yes | 9c | 802.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x978a…a919backed Yes | 10c | 675.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…f162backed Yes | 8c | 586.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 9c | 500.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 437.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f5…22dabacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 4c | 372.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed No | 75c | 353.27$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c5…6f87backed Yes | 17c | 336.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaab…fc76backed Yes | 19c | 313.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccde…f241backed Yes | 7c | 300.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…4e38backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1444…90aebacked Yes | 20c | 245.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 24c | 220$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…863cbacked Yes | 14c | 216.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes | 22c | 215$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…16debacked No | 80c | 215$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 66c | 204.4$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 199.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 9c | 187.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 23c | 178.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 14c | 161$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 80c | 125.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 23c | 86.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked No | 80c | 77.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 19c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…4099backed Yes | 35c | 45.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…ac4fbacked No | 71c | 35.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed No | 47c | 25.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 77c | 21.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…209bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel target Tehran?this page
- Will Israel target an Iranian nuclear facility?No won
- Will Israel target an Iranian oil or gas facility?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.