TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x87e7…1f5e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 56 out of 100; worst Movies at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$734Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+36.2%+$266
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,107.89
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.6
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,220Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$1,080
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$185.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,751Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+62.7%+$1,098.49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$300
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,698Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$702
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+124.7%+$222
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$80
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$626Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$173.99
US forces enter Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+80.5%+$8.92
Israel military action against Yemen before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$46
Will Israel target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$24.5
Israel military response against Iran today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$45.39
Iran strike on Israel before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$64.97
All 18 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.6
Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.12
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $150m and $170m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$18.4
Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$24.78
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2024, EST-100%-$18
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $70m-80m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2024, EST-100%-$19.2
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+295.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 4, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open: Swiatek vs. Pegulabacked Swiatek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$27.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chiefs vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon post 80-89 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wormhole token FDV more than 7 billion a week after airdrop?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$52.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.