TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$308,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$304,945

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6622…d7a9backed Yes31c31,030$9,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,621.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+73.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes26c19,943$5,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,117.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd093…962bbacked Yes46c15,267$7,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,029.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes0c11,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No80c10,626$8,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.513100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+139%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe58f…8d5fbacked Yes7c7,905$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c5,892$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.38583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+202.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes7c5,201$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.12300%0 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5006943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No73c4,976$3,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.964461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes5c4,766$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.441020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c4,263$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.1614938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No73c4,260$3,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.762540%10 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed No69c3,649$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No79c3,381$2,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.36475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+66.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes24c3,155$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.921811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-72.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c2,630$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.924629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No75c2,564$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.281346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20f9…dad9backed No60c2,200$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes7c2,145$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.55130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14bc…aa14backed Yes10c2,052$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No69c1,961$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf91…f6debacked Yes1c1,944$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes25c1,695$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.467842.3%33 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No75c1,652$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed Yes3c1,647$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+41.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb085…ed58backed Yes13c1,520$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed No74c1,497$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes7c1,471$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc44a…70a9backed No74c1,353$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Yes7c1,337$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c1,264$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.061074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes2c1,260$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.173135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe70c…6112backed No72c1,257$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed No51c1,250$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No51c1,250$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.73366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes23c1,118$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.196628.8%19 W · 47 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No68c1,100$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.184946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No73c1,030$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8267.7%2 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-88.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed Yes11c1,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked No79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed No65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes8c959.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.027710.4%8 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c908.13$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.55664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No77c900$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-56.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No66c881.06$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.311127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-60.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes13c732.88$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.361216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc67b…22d5backed Yes29c689.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3007…763abacked No73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No76c666$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ba…3e8bbacked Yes8c647.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8614…7b0ebacked Yes7c606.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed No68c600$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed No74c600$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes8c561.04$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.971118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ee…0a23backed Yes18c542.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No78c504.84$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.06944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b5b…21a7backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf936…f310backed No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1adf…0376backed Yes2c499.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…1ed3backed No78c492.95$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa118…7228backed Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c450$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.95673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No65c445.61$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.911850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes31c444.93$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.932759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b81…b08abacked Yes5c432.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c58…72e6backed Yes2c424.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e24…18a7backed Yes25c401.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9a…a56fbacked No77c400$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…d1dfbacked No80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ec…5d19backed Yes21c380.81$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes29c372.4$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.991656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9efd…1880backed No80c371.88$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07e3…2899backed Yes7c337.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No79c335.19$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.862544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe811…77e5backed Yes8c325.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…eb0abacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No79c291.14$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.142128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a46…118cbacked Yes4c281.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes8c268.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.85714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca9…2924backed No78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes4c255.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc5…9436backed Yes6c253.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5820…83f8backed No79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes27c250$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.35836.2%21 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf353…2878backed No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed No73c250$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes10c243$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.621241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd180…4276backed No78c240$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb65…3f3fbacked Yes43c234.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x823e…3336backed Yes8c218.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa960…f56abacked Yes6c218.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a9e…5e69backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e7…1f5ebacked No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x316f…210abacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab61…1137backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.