TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe89e…bb74

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
104
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 55 out of 100; worst UFC at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-67.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
UFC — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$250
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Yadong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyesbacked Reyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$607.76
UFC Fight Night: Park vs. Tairabacked Park · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$81
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridderbacked Whittaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$570
UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Nurmagomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$420
UFC Fight Night: Buday vs. Buchechabacked Buchecha · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.5
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,705Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+44.2%+$1,195.07
UFC 318: Phillips vs. Oliveirabacked Phillips · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$927Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$927.22
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeirabacked Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+241.9%+$756.97
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Bonfimbacked Thompson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$667Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$666.5
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Garciabacked Kattar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.99
UFC Fight Night: Tafa vs. Tokkosbacked Tafa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$255
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveirabacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$876Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$876.08
UFC 317: Talbott vs. Limabacked Lima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
All 15 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$897Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$897
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$658Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+132.9%+$874.88
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,340Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$2,340
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+31.6%+$240
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+72.4%+$209.99
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,078Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+46.8%+$504.66
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$158
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$95.99
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$380
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,360Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,360
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$120
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+212.5%+$340
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,078Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+205.6%+$2,216.38
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+47.1%+$96
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.79
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel strikes Syria by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$429Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+58.4%+$250.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,348Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+106.8%+$1,438.69
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,068Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,068.26
Kings vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+66.7%+$800
Thunder vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$400
Bulls vs. Pistonsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$5,515Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$5,514.98
Warriors vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,505Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,505.14
Pacers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+138.1%+$2,900
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,678Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,677.71
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+150%+$600
Wizards vs. Jazzbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.29
Mavericks vs. Spursbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.33
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$188.4
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-72.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pelosi vs. S&P - Januarybacked S&P · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$52
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of December 22 above $270?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+66.7%+$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$537Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$537
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+156.4%+$609.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Struffbacked Struff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$82.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$635Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+96.9%+$615
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+26.6%+$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$210
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
July jobs report prints negative?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.