MLB · resolved market
Will Byron Buxton win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfce5a0c395fcfa7bf268356bfa14dde10250c6fda015d66b7f3497ce6890807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 1c | 15,460$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.51 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…72b0backed Yes | 15c | 10,003$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…e126backed Yes | 10c | 8,883$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 1c | 4,615$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,438$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Yes | 2c | 850.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 212 | 46.2%98 W · 114 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Yes | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 182 | 43.4%79 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…2e65backed Yes | 13c | 311.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 15c | 247.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…4adabacked Yes | 13c | 185$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9924…bec3backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…70eabacked Yes | 11c | 159.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…793bbacked Yes | 10c | 146.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…f89cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Byron Buxton win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Brent Rooker win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will James Wood win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jazz Chisholm win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Matt Olson win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Oneil Cruz win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Ronald Acuña Jr. win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.