MLB · resolved market
Will James Wood win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11711deb3edbed835f1353d89b5399ee91f1b6e76aaaea5897c887e20fad2c92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Yes | 19c | 59,886$11,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,545.24 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…f1c3backed Yes | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Yes | 18c | 828.6$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed No | 78c | 450$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…34e1backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 10c | 381.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…562cbacked Yes | 27c | 342.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b2…85d5backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Yes | 21c | 167.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 544 | 41.2%224 W · 320 L | -22.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafd…e0f2backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc0…d2fbbacked Yes | 21c | 149$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 143.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…1f3ebacked Yes | 18c | 132.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Yes | 18c | 122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…4adabacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked Yes | 32c | 74.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…70eabacked Yes | 21c | 64.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…8e32backed Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 76c | 36.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Wood win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Brent Rooker win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Byron Buxton win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will Jazz Chisholm win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Matt Olson win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Oneil Cruz win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Ronald Acuña Jr. win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.