MLB · resolved market
Will Junior Caminero win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf506d38288cfabe30dc306a407e486e3b52a9001d2e1983a800f29ab069b43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe521…72b0backed Yes | 20c | 4,134$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 9c | 2,248$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.33 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef4…412cbacked Yes | 23c | 2,163$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.3 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 9c | 2,112$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.08 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 7c | 1,380$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 1,164$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.5 | 856 | 35.7%306 W · 550 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…f94fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,071$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 13c | 950$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed No | 59c | 800$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Yes | 44c | 671.24$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.02 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…e8a1backed Yes | 31c | 511.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…921fbacked Yes | 10c | 499.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Yes | 48c | 312.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…34e1backed No | 74c | 300.91$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 451 | 49.2%222 W · 229 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf831…b887backed Yes | 9c | 260.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked No | 59c | 244.17$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 212 | 46.2%98 W · 114 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 59c | 204$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Yes | 7c | 192.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Yes | 41c | 190.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 51c | 168.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 10c | 143.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…8e32backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9924…bec3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…b28abacked Yes | 40c | 89.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Yes | 39c | 59.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…b5c3backed No | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 65c | 33.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…ba10backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Brent Rooker win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Byron Buxton win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will James Wood win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jazz Chisholm win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Matt Olson win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Oneil Cruz win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Ronald Acuña Jr. win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.