MLB · resolved market
Will Oneil Cruz win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74617eebf0acbbe417db8994f8a706caa77e8e1eb76a93d34b646cef0fcc6dd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe521…72b0backed Yes | 13c | 5,838$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 79c | 4,811$3,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.14 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d5…df2fbacked Yes | 24c | 4,197$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 21c | 3,672$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.18 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked No | 74c | 1,229$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.57 | 212 | 46.2%98 W · 114 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,194$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.82 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 77c | 1,091$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.21 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 79c | 1,005$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.05 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Yes | 18c | 975.61$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.61 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Yes | 28c | 900$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…1f3ebacked Yes | 24c | 822.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…34e1backed Yes | 23c | 690$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…005fbacked No | 80c | 595$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed No | 78c | 566.89$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 78c | 505$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.16 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 182 | 43.4%79 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 20c | 475.3$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 75c | 456.43$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…b5c3backed Yes | 34c | 455$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…a0c6backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed Yes | 23c | 299.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 78c | 252.56$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -9.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…7c26backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…921fbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 78c | 204$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b2…85d5backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…aae4backed Yes | 37c | 183.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 178.17$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Yes | 7c | 165.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafd…e0f2backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 76c | 119.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 37c | 119.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 77c | 118.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…4adabacked Yes | 23c | 117.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked Yes | 24c | 113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 17c | 79.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 68.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Yes | 30c | 65.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…2b9dbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 23c | 51.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…aa43backed Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oneil Cruz win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Brent Rooker win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Byron Buxton win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will James Wood win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jazz Chisholm win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Matt Olson win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Ronald Acuña Jr. win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.