TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd2d5…df2f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$850
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Cabo Verde · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spain vs. Austria: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$281.25
United States to score first vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$295.89
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Senegal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Belgium vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+94.7%+$378.87
Belgium vs. Senegal: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
England vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$563.83
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$734.48
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$856.9
Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Donyell Malen: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Virgil van Dijk: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Weston McKennie: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$420
Kamal Deen Sulemana: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$335
Petar Musa: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$1,241.43
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Gavi Paez: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Wright State Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.88
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Butler Bulldogsbacked Seton Hall Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+39%+$194.86
Butler Bulldogs vs. Marquette Golden Eaglesbacked Butler Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Butler Bulldogs vs. St. John's Red Stormbacked Butler Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$656Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$655.51
Butler Bulldogs vs. Xavier Musketeersbacked Butler Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$400
St. John's Red Storm vs. Butler Bulldogsbacked Butler Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Villanova Wildcats vs. Butler Bulldogsbacked Butler Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Butler Bulldogs vs. Creighton Bluejaysbacked Butler Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$1,200
Spread: Butler Bulldogs (-2.5)backed Butler Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+85.2%+$340.74
Butler Bulldogs vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Butler Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Providence Friars vs. Butler Bulldogsbacked Butler Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+85.3%+$255.82
Butler Bulldogs vs. SMU Mustangsbacked Butler Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$600
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+347.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$155.51
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$315
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+2,682.4%+$9,388.33
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.82
Will Indiana Pacers receive the first overall pick at the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,340
NBA Finals G7: Will Haliburton score 15+ points against the Thunder? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,200
NBA Finals G3: Pacers win and Haliburton scores 18+ points?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$1,880.95
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+542.2%+$2,168.85
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+32%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+104.4%+$417.51
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$2,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$2,800
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+272.9%+$4,912.32
Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+282.3%+$6,210.55
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$400
1H Spread: Rams (-1.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+128.8%+$386.36
Will the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$240
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
All 9 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Sep 26, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aces vs. Feverbacked Fever · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+84.2%+$2,526.59
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+35%+$70.08
All 3 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
O/U 48.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Miami vs. Ole Missbacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Miami vs. Texas A&Mbacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+122.2%+$18.15
All 3 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+166.5%+$1,831.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 26, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cardinals vs. Cubsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$411.11
Will Oneil Cruz win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$170
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+119.4%+$954.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+112.8%+$338.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,065Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,065
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.