TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Golf · resolved market

Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,106 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Golf
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes6c92,210$5,153 inLost-$5,152.78277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes5c12,419$631 inLost-$630.8917.7%7 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-76.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eab…b026backed Yes3c3,848$100 inLost-$1001010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+101%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd929…a5c7backed Yes4c3,806$150 inLost-$15060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3399…65a5backed Yes8c3,636$280 inLost-$280333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,652$53 inLost-$52.522953.7%11 W · 284 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes4c2,632$100 inLost-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6641…4a1abacked Yes4c1,708$65 inLost-$65190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes3c1,593$46 inLost-$46.011910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d5…df2fbacked Yes4c1,351$50 inLost-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Yes2c1,200$26 inLost-$26.39240%0 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb7…2983backed Yes2c1,038$22 inLost-$222035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick28cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes4c1,000$37 inLost-$374916.3%8 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14af…3923backed Yes6c988.19$58 inLost-$58812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd92…9e72backed Yes4c526.32$20 inLost-$20130%0 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5387…c91ebacked Yes2c508.16$11 inLost-$111227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda06…75d9backed Yes5c500$26 inLost-$26.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc34…f638backed Yes4c500$19 inLost-$18.560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ad…3ad9backed Yes4c411.95$15 inLost-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x065f…2e80backed Yes4c394.74$15 inLost-$15128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-70%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a46…a525backed Yes7c371.29$26 inLost-$25.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1421…644bbacked Yes7c323$22 inLost-$21.63119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-60.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0102…e4d2backed Yes7c310.61$20 inLost-$20.53823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes8c250$21 inLost-$214918.4%9 W · 40 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-29.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39e8…e34ebacked Yes6c221.1$13 inLost-$1350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes6c194.14$11 inLost-$10.9504%2 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-62.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.