Golf · resolved market
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 U.S. Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aeef829e4e2c709d9ec40a5e4078c54c7de90d6581900330812f4aa4b25453c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 3c | 11,230$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.95 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc175…50b4backed Yes | 5c | 6,990$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 5c | 5,963$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.03 | 91 | 7.7%7 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…fa62backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…2e74backed Yes | 6c | 3,592$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes | 4c | 2,385$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 4c | 2,326$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…3923backed Yes | 6c | 1,813$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Yes | 5c | 1,503$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…1245backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…a045backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 884.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 295 | 3.7%11 W · 284 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc039…e6a0backed Yes | 4c | 619.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…f8edbacked Yes | 7c | 555.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04df…642ebacked Yes | 4c | 526.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…f638backed Yes | 4c | 520$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…3ad9backed Yes | 5c | 518.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…451fbacked Yes | 4c | 513.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…a85abacked Yes | 2c | 501$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…1ddbbacked Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b8…42dcbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…1749backed Yes | 4c | 490$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…6b05backed Yes | 4c | 487.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 4c | 465.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 5c | 400.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes | 4c | 390.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…bc0ebacked Yes | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…71eebacked Yes | 8c | 254.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 U.S. Open?this page
- Will Adam Scott win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Brooks Koepka win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Bryson DeChambeau win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Cameron Young win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Carlos Ortiz win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will J.J. Spaun win The 2025 U.S. Open?Yes won
- Will Joaquin Niemann win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Russell Henley win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Sahith Theegala win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Sam Burns win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Tom Kim win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Tony Finau win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Tyrrell Hatton win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.