TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6641…4a1a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
109
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst AI at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT2725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will valid votes be between 32 million and 34 million in South Korean election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$956Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$956.36
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+1,263.9%+$3,791.62
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,200
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,725Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+531.2%+$9,163.89
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$500.33
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+150%+$750
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$320
Will Oh Se-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Han Dong-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Hong Joon-pyo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$351.35
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$342.38
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2025, EDT190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Tom Kim win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Joaquin Niemann win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.13
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Wyndham Clark win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Tony Finau win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2025 Valero Texas Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Valero Texas Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
All 19 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+203%+$812.12
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$3,392Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,392.5
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$837Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$1,778.26
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$554Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$554.05
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Clippers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$478.87
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$1,083.33
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$1,941.18
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Pacers vs. Bucksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$1,702.7
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$1,222.22
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$2,125
Cavaliers vs. Heatbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$859Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+46.7%+$400.77
All 17 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solana all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$1,583.54
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$328.57
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Ethereum all time high by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Solana all time high by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Solana reach $180 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$423.53
Will Solana reach $190 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$320
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+233.4%+$746.83
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST70%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$830Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+83.7%+$694.1
Rays vs. Yankeesbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopesbacked Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.