TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$584,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$472,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $584,906 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc7e6…7aabbacked No76c52,207$39,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,529.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56bb…5637backed Yes24c52,207$12,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,529.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes12c27,211$3,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.619915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbb…42d6backed Yes23c23,300$5,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,307.831711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid+154.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36cc…8642backed No60c20,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,999.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c16,986$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.376291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes36c16,940$6,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,122.142326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb83f…6562backed Yes32c15,134$4,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,912.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No73c14,810$10,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,949.562147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5af…023fbacked Yes5c13,992$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6584…3843backed Yes28c13,267$3,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7651250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5be3…8c20backed Yes38c11,055$4,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,190.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes26c10,984$2,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,863.321717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+261.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes34c10,317$3,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,495.067951.9%41 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a4f…3e1abacked Yes28c10,065$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,831.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes13c8,606$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.221145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes25c8,208$2,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.6911030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes7c7,803$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.442626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed Yes28c7,525$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.281414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ff…e0b8backed Yes9c5,829$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.08425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-67.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7121…afd2backed Yes16c4,904$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.41714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+77.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1601…2841backed Yes35c4,561$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked No73c4,500$3,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.391266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes25c4,396$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.412846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+43.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x259b…dafcbacked Yes24c3,957$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9501428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe158…9d56backed Yes29c3,811$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.99137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe7e…c200backed Yes25c3,797$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.111216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No76c3,785$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.3625731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed Yes22c3,703$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.95728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes28c3,516$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.671136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes18c3,510$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.493627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed Yes23c3,413$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8016338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c3,373$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6915615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c2…6de5backed Yes29c3,319$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.791136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+133.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes3c3,157$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-70.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c8…6e68backed Yes27c2,558$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.38812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes19c2,550$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.720418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf112…d9e1backed Yes40c2,503$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd0…eb9dbacked Yes17c2,309$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes21c2,082$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.965448.1%26 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x80c8…e6bdbacked Yes26c1,931$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b64…e5a4backed Yes8c1,788$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.55812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes39c1,740$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.484353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc2d…063fbacked Yes20c1,620$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.791631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+185.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0147…85d4backed Yes35c1,594$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-52.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Yes28c1,564$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.03520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes17c1,470$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.5725122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee4…17e1backed Yes29c1,382$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes19c1,352$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.524117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Yes20c1,349$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes24c1,335$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.626041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5977…e5a4backed Yes28c1,293$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,239$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.431,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes31c1,230$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.41717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-66%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b6b…3e7abacked Yes4c1,223$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a2…033fbacked Yes29c1,200$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x456a…741bbacked Yes26c1,155$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes10c1,137$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.912040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6725…fa50backed Yes10c1,111$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes26c1,107$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.626428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d3…3a70backed Yes29c1,107$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed No66c1,106$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.092060%12 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+103.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes27c1,105$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.851735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99c9…4c22backed Yes37c1,082$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes13c1,057$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.719834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6641…4a1abacked Yes24c1,055$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0460…e16abacked Yes31c1,046$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…9e58backed Yes32c1,044$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c1,038$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.992110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa667…b6f7backed Yes34c1,029$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26ee…e027backed Yes4c1,016$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2707611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37ef…39b9backed Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-55.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c919.89$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.8272935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x796d…c501backed Yes8c910.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes23c899.98$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.997024.3%17 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-35.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3ea…cb98backed Yes34c882.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c879.98$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8311…0a00backed Yes21c865.17$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe85e…775fbacked Yes23c850$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19260%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfe0…4c7bbacked No67c833.13$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.931346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+62.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8422…a1ebbacked Yes4c808.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.06119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-86.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc38…520abacked Yes28c791$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes19c778.29$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.882218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed Yes39c764.08$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9860%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd32d…3c32backed Yes29c753.97$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+101.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…4051backed Yes3c744.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eab…89dcbacked Yes40c738.03$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes23c735$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.059041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc15…3635backed Yes28c734.33$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f36…f6e8backed Yes3c721.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes8c700$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535221.2%11 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes27c700$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1891338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No74c663.54$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.252740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes11c663.33$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.973125.8%8 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+104%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde97…3b53backed Yes32c651.08$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e8…ab20backed Yes11c641$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.282821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No79c615.32$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.625635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc45…e0eabacked Yes16c607.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.