AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaaacb26f763f956b64813ecbeab3ba2701eaaccb0354563c1d8f012de95ab98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $584,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $472,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $584,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7e6…7aabbacked No | 76c | 52,207$39,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,529.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…5637backed Yes | 24c | 52,207$12,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,529.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 12c | 27,211$3,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,309.61 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…42d6backed Yes | 23c | 23,300$5,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,307.83 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…8642backed No | 60c | 20,000$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,999.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 16,986$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.37 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 36c | 16,940$6,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,122.14 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…6562backed Yes | 32c | 15,134$4,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,912.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 73c | 14,810$10,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,949.56 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5af…023fbacked Yes | 5c | 13,992$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 28c | 13,267$3,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,765 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…8c20backed Yes | 38c | 11,055$4,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,190.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes | 26c | 10,984$2,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,863.32 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +261.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 34c | 10,317$3,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,495.06 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…3e1abacked Yes | 28c | 10,065$2,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,831.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 13c | 8,606$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 25c | 8,208$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.69 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 7c | 7,803$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Yes | 28c | 7,525$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.28 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…e0b8backed Yes | 9c | 5,829$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7121…afd2backed Yes | 16c | 4,904$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…2841backed Yes | 35c | 4,561$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9afdbacked No | 73c | 4,500$3,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 25c | 4,396$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.41 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…dafcbacked Yes | 24c | 3,957$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…9d56backed Yes | 29c | 3,811$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…c200backed Yes | 25c | 3,797$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 3,785$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.36 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…6a76backed Yes | 22c | 3,703$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 28c | 3,516$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 18c | 3,510$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.49 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 23c | 3,413$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 3,373$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…6de5backed Yes | 29c | 3,319$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 3,157$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 27c | 2,558$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 19c | 2,550$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.7 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…d9e1backed Yes | 40c | 2,503$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd0…eb9dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,309$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,082$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.96 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80c8…e6bdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,931$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…e5a4backed Yes | 8c | 1,788$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 39c | 1,740$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.48 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…063fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,620$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0147…85d4backed Yes | 35c | 1,594$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 28c | 1,564$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 1,470$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.57 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…17e1backed Yes | 29c | 1,382$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 19c | 1,352$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.52 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Yes | 20c | 1,349$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,335$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.62 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5977…e5a4backed Yes | 28c | 1,293$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,239$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 31c | 1,230$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6b…3e7abacked Yes | 4c | 1,223$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a2…033fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,200$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…741bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,155$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 10c | 1,137$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.91 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…fa50backed Yes | 10c | 1,111$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 26c | 1,107$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.62 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d3…3a70backed Yes | 29c | 1,107$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 66c | 1,106$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.09 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 27c | 1,105$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c9…4c22backed Yes | 37c | 1,082$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 13c | 1,057$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Yes | 24c | 1,055$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…e16abacked Yes | 31c | 1,046$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…9e58backed Yes | 32c | 1,044$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,038$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…b6f7backed Yes | 34c | 1,029$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ee…e027backed Yes | 4c | 1,016$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…39b9backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 919.89$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.82 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…c501backed Yes | 8c | 910.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 23c | 899.98$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.99 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ea…cb98backed Yes | 34c | 882.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 879.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…0a00backed Yes | 21c | 865.17$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…775fbacked Yes | 23c | 850$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…4c7bbacked No | 67c | 833.13$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…a1ebbacked Yes | 4c | 808.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…520abacked Yes | 28c | 791$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes | 19c | 778.29$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.88 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 39c | 764.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 29c | 753.97$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…4051backed Yes | 3c | 744.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…89dcbacked Yes | 40c | 738.03$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 23c | 735$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…3635backed Yes | 28c | 734.33$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…f6e8backed Yes | 3c | 721.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 8c | 700$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 27c | 700$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 74c | 663.54$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 11c | 663.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +104%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…3b53backed Yes | 32c | 651.08$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 11c | 641$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 79c | 615.32$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…e0eabacked Yes | 16c | 607.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.