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AI · resolved market

Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$471,127
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$360,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $471,127 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c51,962$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.036311.3%8 W · 623 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes1c22,839$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.28120%0 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8c5…4109backed Yes2c22,392$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.29190%0 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes3c20,509$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.764117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes1c13,676$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.182330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c10,600$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.492570.8%2 W · 255 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f0e…fc1bbacked Yes0c10,355$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8422…a1ebbacked Yes2c10,294$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-86.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6641…4a1abacked Yes3c8,336$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes1c8,026$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.599915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes2c7,295$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.925817.2%10 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes2c6,718$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.37329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3216backed Yes2c6,199$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c6,087$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.881051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50ef…5e6ebacked Yes2c5,940$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes4c5,899$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.861717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+261.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f0…8646backed Yes7c5,596$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.981040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes3c4,863$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7624315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c4,825$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.645813.8%8 W · 50 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick3cpaid+63.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x371e…c419backed Yes23c4,389$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes3c4,106$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.662740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c4,002$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.092120.9%2 W · 210 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c3,790$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.62821.2%1 W · 81 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2b…c0e1backed Yes1c3,789$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x456a…741bbacked Yes3c3,422$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b6b…3e7abacked Yes2c2,870$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3153…778cbacked Yes1c2,867$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1174…913cbacked Yes4c2,559$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes5c2,540$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.83627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf01…492abacked Yes1c2,469$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes5c2,354$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.852218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c2,266$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1657426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f79…c76ebacked Yes1c2,141$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.152626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a34…4273backed Yes4c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes2c1,867$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.54714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,825$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.631,3686.8%93 W · 1,275 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes3c1,774$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.981145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes1c1,716$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.66053.3%32 W · 28 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+36.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed Yes5c1,493$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0034…1767backed Yes1c1,467$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.721926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+183.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e23…eed9backed Yes2c1,374$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5977…e5a4backed Yes1c1,210$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes3c1,195$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.866428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9308…e2f5backed Yes4c1,115$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4480%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xed9e…0d91backed Yes2c1,103$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes3c1,027$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.811833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+93.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed13…e733backed Yes2c1,017$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd23…0242backed Yes4c1,009$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Yes3c974.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.641020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e2…e49ebacked Yes2c946.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8128…e88dbacked Yes4c894.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.04922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5050…5e6cbacked Yes2c884$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bc…8667backed Yes4c845.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d2…145dbacked Yes2c825.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25aa…8208backed Yes3c783$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26c5…572ebacked Yes2c766.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes3c740$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.16345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd121…54c7backed Yes2c719.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3166…a9febacked Yes3c696.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.041421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa23d…a396backed Yes3c666.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x972d…bb92backed Yes6c653.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb9…59f6backed Yes3c603.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No50c598$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.41776.5%13 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.36per pick41cpaid+90.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes4c569.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.62150%0 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes3c533.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.353010%3 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa300…448abacked Yes4c507.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked Yes3c484.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb701…0ca0backed Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+186.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165221.2%11 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7a…cc34backed Yes3c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x427d…bdf1backed Yes5c396.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed Yes3c392.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07a4…fd85backed Yes3c365$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes6c361.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b3…daaebacked Yes6c337.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06af…f499backed Yes5c316.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe46e…fb06backed Yes7c304.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37024.3%17 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-35.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8182…7cf5backed Yes13c299.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes4c271.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.01147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-89%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c262$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9830327.4%83 W · 220 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e7…a343backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-93.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.