AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702538016d765521c08de342e1b8df9454ae1e66cca89bf1e037fe07471388c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $272,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fbb…42d6backed Yes | 16c | 35,508$5,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,733.95 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 27,227$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3899…452ebacked Yes | 3c | 20,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 10c | 14,494$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.88 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 6c | 7,410$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.92 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…82b3backed Yes | 2c | 4,251$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 3,921$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.1 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…d54abacked Yes | 27c | 3,748$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…766dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,644$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 9c | 3,022$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.58 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,848$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4569…c0d3backed Yes | 56c | 2,676$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Yes | 10c | 2,530$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6b…3e7abacked Yes | 2c | 2,356$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 10c | 2,100$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.64 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 2,052$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.65 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3498…5088backed Yes | 5c | 1,936$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 4c | 1,782$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,779$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 57c | 1,450$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.51 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…fa50backed Yes | 6c | 1,218$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 17c | 1,169$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…88dabacked Yes | 14c | 1,154$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.86 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…741bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,144$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 58c | 1,142$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.44 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,132$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,076$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1174…913cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,072$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 60c | 1,007$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…ef3bbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…fb3bbacked Yes | 10c | 974.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 17c | 930$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…0b68backed Yes | 2c | 912$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…5dccbacked Yes | 2c | 876.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 19c | 867.18$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.82 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 32c | 799.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.99 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 8c | 799.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 3c | 769.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed No | 44c | 725.47$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd0…eb9dbacked Yes | 3c | 700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 699.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 7c | 689.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…c201backed No | 46c | 673.35$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…4fcebacked Yes | 6c | 599.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 2c | 569.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8c…73cfbacked Yes | 4c | 507.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…f6debacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…e733backed Yes | 4c | 463.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 66c | 460.54$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.96 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 424.86$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.04 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 68c | 414.3$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.73 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…9938backed Yes | 17c | 408$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…520abacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…e0eabacked Yes | 13c | 377.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 351.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6b…ded8backed Yes | 58c | 346.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…d678backed Yes | 12c | 344.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x132b…be94backed No | 79c | 341$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3b…eea1backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +356.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace0…05cebacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa8…fc2dbacked Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 17c | 299.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e1…37f0backed Yes | 5c | 295$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0034…1767backed Yes | 23c | 291.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +183.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 69c | 290.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 279.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 273.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…4c7bbacked No | 34c | 253.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…4e3bbacked Yes | 59c | 252.77$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 16c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -89%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 5c | 235.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ef…3870backed Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…f6f9backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…9480backed No | 77c | 190.42$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…6b18backed Yes | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +380.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 42c | 187.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c9…22d8backed Yes | 27c | 186.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…4ccabacked No | 58c | 173.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…3057backed No | 33c | 172.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…9f94backed Yes | 12c | 166.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 27c | 162.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 65c | 160$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 17c | 155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecc…24c7backed Yes | 14c | 143.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…60acbacked No | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 127.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…4ab1backed No | 45c | 127.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 112$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed Yes | 18c | 104$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf0…e852backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…7a2dbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.