AI · resolved market
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b4d1584715be1214797eb680966c68238ef24ec4b8f38b293fe6f808620770b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $465,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $465,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 28,675$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.74 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 0c | 25,615$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…42d6backed Yes | 3c | 16,961$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.54 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6b…3e7abacked Yes | 0c | 12,177$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c87…c027backed Yes | 4c | 11,435$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Yes | 7c | 11,327$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 11,066$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.67 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1174…913cbacked Yes | 7c | 7,839$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 6,913$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afe…0f22backed Yes | 2c | 5,694$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 2c | 5,623$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 10c | 5,490$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 5,438$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…4051backed Yes | 0c | 4,780$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 2c | 4,621$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,606$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 6c | 3,299$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…5e05backed Yes | 3c | 2,950$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 3c | 2,828$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,470$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 2,430$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.56 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,216$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 4c | 2,017$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 2c | 1,991$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,814$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…9440backed Yes | 1c | 1,757$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…132ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,726$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,715$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.72 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Yes | 15c | 1,704$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,663$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 1c | 1,513$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,427$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb9…59f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,404$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…c666backed Yes | 2c | 1,263$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf6…078abacked Yes | 8c | 1,211$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…81d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,183$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…a7f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,164$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 13c | 1,042$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.24 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed Yes | 14c | 1,024$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…b1d4backed Yes | 10c | 990.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…741bbacked Yes | 14c | 704.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…20d7backed Yes | 8c | 634.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 10c | 542.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c22…962ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 8c | 432.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 9c | 400.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 9c | 353.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 9c | 316.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x636f…ca5cbacked Yes | 11c | 284.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065f…a838backed Yes | 6c | 275$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…bd2cbacked Yes | 7c | 272.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…d954backed Yes | 7c | 231.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 211.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…9ff4backed Yes | 6c | 210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8128…e88dbacked Yes | 6c | 205.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…eacfbacked Yes | 9c | 161.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e5…52f6backed Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 10c | 154.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc3…2e02backed Yes | 10c | 149.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132d…bfbabacked Yes | 10c | 129$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…0a00backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?Yes won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.