TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x87a0…4e12

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
121
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Premier League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 56 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US forces in Yemen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Trump's sovereign wealth fund acquires Bitcoin before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.5
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$619Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$619.14
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.48
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$44.4
TikTok sale announced before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.55
US military action against Iran before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.68
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$129.4
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,421Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+63.5%+$902.51
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$994Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+51.6%+$512.63
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+36.6%+$73.21
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+185.7%+$269.29
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+35.1%+$20.29
Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+99.3%+$286.63
Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$75.7
Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+188.3%+$207.9
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$54.99
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$454.09
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10.45
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$331.62
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$194.28
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$75.85
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2025, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trail Blazers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.35
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$22.97
Cavaliers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$110.73
Bulls vs. Celticsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Kings vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST+47.1%+$11.84
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$86.1
Heat vs. Netsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+35%+$25.15
Celtics vs. Mavericksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+53.8%+$16.45
Pacers vs. Spursbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+87.7%+$26.32
Mavericks vs. Hornetsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$319.88
Celtics vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$51
Suns vs. Cavaliersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$279
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$300.25
Timberwolves vs. Grizzliesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$42.91
Pistons vs. Rocketsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+212.5%+$680
Raptors vs. Bucksbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$35.84
Mavericks vs. Pelicansbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$59.6
Hawks vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST+35.1%+$52.7
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-43.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$98
Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.19
Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$187.57
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.96
Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+177.8%+$177.78
Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$182.92
Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$149.59
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+49.3%+$49.25
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$122.4
Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+376.2%+$131.67
Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$45.08
All 16 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kape vs. Almabayevbacked Kape · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+47.9%+$71.78
Brundage vs. Marquezbacked Marquez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Amil vs. Gomisbacked Amil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+211.1%+$42.21
Barlow vs. Pattersonbacked Patterson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+184.1%+$23.93
Lane vs. Pintobacked Lane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Silva vs. Almeidabacked Almeida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.28
Lee vs. Aldrichbacked Lee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11.8
Allen vs. Hernandezbacked Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$16.8
Cejudo vs. Songbacked Cejudo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Shahbazyan vs. Budkabacked Shahbazyan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST+31.6%+$63.16
Matthews vs. Delgadobacked Delgado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST+26.4%+$52.87
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$189.03
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.26
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$796Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+276.1%+$2,196.7
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+46.1%+$11.3
Will Donald Trump say "Can you imagine" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+64.1%+$48.75
Will Donald Trump say "Mineral" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+42.9%+$17.14
Will Donald Trump say "US" or "United States" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+55.7%+$46.16
Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$12.13
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2025, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+77.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2025, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-59.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.88
TikTok banned in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$47.13
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$413Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+35.8%+$147.89
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek banned in US before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$263.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.