UFC · resolved market
Cejudo vs. Song
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00e7f9bf84dfac1bda406bf44a0d185db471dce06654aec1996885bec30b8d47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Songof Cejudo, Song
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 303 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c21…69debacked Song | 75c | 11,349$8,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,887.17 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Song | 70c | 11,000$7,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,295.01 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Cejudo | 15c | 10,230$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.89 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Song | 69c | 8,608$5,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,632.25 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Song | 68c | 8,500$5,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,689.97 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb010…b243backed Song | 76c | 7,531$5,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cejudo | 29c | 7,123$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048.44 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Cejudo | 25c | 6,932$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721.16 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Song | 70c | 6,565$4,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.27 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Cejudo | 30c | 6,407$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.01 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Cejudo | 27c | 5,000$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cejudo | 29c | 4,679$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.64 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…e855backed Cejudo | 30c | 4,587$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…b76fbacked Song | 71c | 4,000$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Cejudo | 30c | 3,330$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…bba6backed Cejudo | 31c | 3,226$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Cejudo | 30c | 3,082$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Cejudo | 29c | 3,050$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Song | 70c | 2,737$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.1 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Song | 70c | 2,647$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.44 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Cejudo | 6c | 2,565$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Cejudo | 6c | 2,398$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2811…d442backed Cejudo | 32c | 2,386$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Cejudo | 31c | 2,350$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.8 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cejudo | 26c | 1,793$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.78 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cejudo | 30c | 1,681$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.13 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…95fbbacked Cejudo | 32c | 1,577$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.7 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Song | 69c | 1,536$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.32 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Cejudo | 26c | 1,489$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.48 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Cejudo | 32c | 1,444$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.12 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…9e8fbacked Cejudo | 30c | 1,335$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Cejudo | 32c | 1,250$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Cejudo | 29c | 1,240$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.5 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cejudo | 29c | 1,180$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.48 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Song | 69c | 1,114$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…8775backed Song | 70c | 1,092$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.66 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Song | 70c | 1,053$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.63 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Cejudo | 20c | 1,023$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.5 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Cejudo | 29c | 1,018$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Cejudo | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cejudo | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Cejudo | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Cejudo | 12c | 840$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd835…0d2dbacked Cejudo | 32c | 785.59$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Cejudo | 32c | 781.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Song | 79c | 768.5$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Cejudo | 29c | 765$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.25 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Song | 77c | 733.33$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Song | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 355 | 64.5%229 W · 126 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Song | 70c | 683.99$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…fc9cbacked Cejudo | 32c | 637.34$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…31a7backed Cejudo | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Cejudo | 29c | 591.1$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Cejudo | 5c | 580$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Song | 72c | 578.92$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.1 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…c7debacked Song | 71c | 566.51$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Song | 68c | 549.99$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Cejudo | 32c | 530$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.3 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…a1d1backed Cejudo | 31c | 508.74$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Song | 70c | 505.02$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.05 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Cejudo | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Song | 74c | 482$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…9996backed Cejudo | 30c | 478.16$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Song | 70c | 458.42$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…f6f9backed Cejudo | 28c | 456.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Cejudo | 29c | 454$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Song | 72c | 449.99$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Cejudo | 31c | 425.81$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Cejudo | 29c | 413.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…4df2backed Cejudo | 29c | 407.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…fd9fbacked Song | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Cejudo | 29c | 370.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…2324backed Cejudo | 30c | 335.18$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Cejudo | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Cejudo | 31c | 327.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed Cejudo | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…4dc3backed Cejudo | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Cejudo | 31c | 321.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Song | 68c | 318.78$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Song | 71c | 312.68$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…c62abacked Song | 72c | 290$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…4781backed Song | 71c | 285$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…4229backed Cejudo | 29c | 285$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Cejudo | 10c | 274.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Cejudo | 29c | 261.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Cejudo | 28c | 256.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…4a26backed Cejudo | 29c | 255$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7955…8298backed Song | 71c | 255$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2448…7769backed Song | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa60…d8a2backed Cejudo | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…8636backed Song | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…3c56backed Cejudo | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5861…66efbacked Song | 67c | 242.18$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Cejudo | 13c | 234.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…cf6abacked Song | 72c | 215$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6933…66dfbacked Cejudo | 28c | 215$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…e6cdbacked Cejudo | 31c | 210.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a49…f791backed Song | 72c | 201$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7325…8d9abacked Cejudo | 28c | 201$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Song | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cejudo vs. Songthis page
- Allen vs. HernandezHernandez won
- Menifield vs. WalkerMenifield won
- Silva vs. BaghdasaryanSilva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.