TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Allen vs. Hernandez

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hernandezof Allen, Hernandez
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,023

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9716…378abacked Allen23c20,034$4,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,667.834934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Hernandez75c19,757$14,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,939.2635253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Hernandez76c18,479$14,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,344.9722259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Hernandez76c9,808$7,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,378.356453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Allen25c7,001$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.632626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-52.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Hernandez73c6,859$4,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.473959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Allen27c3,869$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.634740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Allen25c3,050$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Allen24c3,024$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.09825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Allen25c3,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74013953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Allen25c2,911$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.3314751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Allen26c2,433$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.7219531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x465e…bf90backed Hernandez74c2,023$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.053638.9%14 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-32.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Allen25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Allen25c1,524$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3814946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Hernandez67c1,499$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.3629848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Allen25c1,421$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.3625251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Allen25c1,204$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Allen28c1,149$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.1911540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Allen44c1,124$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.393847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Hernandez76c1,010$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.41758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Allen25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Allen26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26016247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3916…53c7backed Allen25c992.4$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.15038%19 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4407…8f2bbacked Hernandez77c909.09$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Allen24c897.14$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2614355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Hernandez76c838.65$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.661758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Allen20c834$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4214129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Hernandez74c605.33$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.3335664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Hernandez76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1204151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked Allen28c479.63$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Allen24c432$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.088060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Allen25c427.34$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.844151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2730…63eebacked Allen28c420$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.42462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x617d…fd9fbacked Allen25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10c4…429bbacked Hernandez77c398.13$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.572378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+46.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Allen27c379.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.636745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Allen24c371.95$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2718560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ca…5830backed Allen28c363$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Allen33c361$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.51770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+48.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Allen28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Hernandez76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7212159.5%72 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Allen24c277$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.482646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Allen43c258.14$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1116462.5%40 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3819…f3d1backed Hernandez76c250$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Hernandez75c204.04$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4948749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Allen25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505141.2%21 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd7…7575backed Allen25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503324.2%8 W · 25 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x87a0…4e12backed Allen8c199.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x041b…31a7backed Hernandez52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.31633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Allen26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…49b4backed Allen21c191.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Hernandez77c188.65$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.396254.8%34 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Allen48c182.31$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.512360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cec…abb3backed Hernandez75c170.12$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.533842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed Allen25c170$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Allen40c168.57$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4353956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239a…a0c6backed Allen20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304540%18 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…e6cdbacked Allen28c144.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fa1…591abacked Allen19c130$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed Allen27c130$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.58535.3%30 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72fa…747fbacked Allen24c128.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe001…e522backed Allen25c115.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Hernandez73c115.59$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2156450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked Hernandez50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501675%12 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Allen25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Allen27c92.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524649.6%122 W · 124 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Allen27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528333.2%94 W · 189 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9083…d27bbacked Allen23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015139.7%60 W · 91 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafb7…75f4backed Hernandez69c86.36$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.367655.3%42 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x614b…5845backed Allen24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203834.2%13 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x919c…5afebacked Allen24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-38.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf2…a6a5backed Allen24c81.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe40…2f99backed Allen25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205234.6%18 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Allen25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Allen25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86bc…e452backed Allen25c78.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.661717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7308…8058backed Hernandez78c77.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.26955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed Hernandez70c75$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9789…21d1backed Allen24c73.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.952441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b19…ac2ebacked Allen28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Allen24c71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3910439.4%41 W · 63 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb408…f21bbacked Hernandez73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.497651.3%39 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Hernandez76c68.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3613465.7%88 W · 46 L+10.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d0d…04a3backed Hernandez75c54.17$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…4df2backed Hernandez76c52.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.632556%14 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x367d…06c5backed Allen25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Allen26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Allen28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Hernandez68c47.18$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.128743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c56…186abacked Hernandez77c42.86$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.862462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Allen25c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa522…ea51backed Allen25c39.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d4c…e7d1backed Allen32c38.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b6…8ad0backed Allen50c33.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.611637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c93…a00bbacked Hernandez70c32.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.87666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fbc…f97bbacked Allen33c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f3…f6b1backed Hernandez73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.11844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7bf…7336backed Allen37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Hernandez76c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.482055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.