UFC · resolved market
Allen vs. Hernandez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82e5eabbaa121b325ac2181f6d8dc5b1c9fb8b19422d81e8ddc74ae85b2ca1ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hernandezof Allen, Hernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Allen | 23c | 20,034$4,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,667.83 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Hernandez | 75c | 19,757$14,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,939.26 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Hernandez | 76c | 18,479$14,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,344.97 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Hernandez | 76c | 9,808$7,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,378.35 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Allen | 25c | 7,001$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.63 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xace4…bd19backed Hernandez | 73c | 6,859$4,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.47 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Allen | 27c | 3,869$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.63 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Allen | 25c | 3,050$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Allen | 24c | 3,024$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Allen | 25c | 3,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Allen | 25c | 2,911$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.33 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Allen | 26c | 2,433$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.72 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…bf90backed Hernandez | 74c | 2,023$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.05 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Allen | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Allen | 25c | 1,524$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Hernandez | 67c | 1,499$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.36 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Allen | 25c | 1,421$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.36 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Allen | 25c | 1,204$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Allen | 28c | 1,149$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.19 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Allen | 44c | 1,124$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.39 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Hernandez | 76c | 1,010$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Allen | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Allen | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Allen | 25c | 992.4$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.1 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Hernandez | 77c | 909.09$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Allen | 24c | 897.14$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.26 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Hernandez | 76c | 838.65$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Allen | 20c | 834$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.42 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Hernandez | 74c | 605.33$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.33 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Hernandez | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Allen | 28c | 479.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Allen | 24c | 432$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Allen | 25c | 427.34$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Allen | 28c | 420$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…fd9fbacked Allen | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c4…429bbacked Hernandez | 77c | 398.13$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Allen | 27c | 379.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Allen | 24c | 371.95$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…5830backed Allen | 28c | 363$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Allen | 33c | 361$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Allen | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Hernandez | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Allen | 24c | 277$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Allen | 43c | 258.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…f3d1backed Hernandez | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Hernandez | 75c | 204.04$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Allen | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Allen | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Allen | 8c | 199.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…31a7backed Hernandez | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Allen | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…49b4backed Allen | 21c | 191.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Hernandez | 77c | 188.65$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Allen | 48c | 182.31$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.51 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed Hernandez | 75c | 170.12$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Allen | 25c | 170$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Allen | 40c | 168.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Allen | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…e6cdbacked Allen | 28c | 144.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Allen | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Allen | 27c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…747fbacked Allen | 24c | 128.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe001…e522backed Allen | 25c | 115.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Hernandez | 73c | 115.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5861…66efbacked Hernandez | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Allen | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Allen | 27c | 92.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Allen | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…d27bbacked Allen | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 39.7%60 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Hernandez | 69c | 86.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed Allen | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919c…5afebacked Allen | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…a6a5backed Allen | 24c | 81.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe40…2f99backed Allen | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Allen | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Allen | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…e452backed Allen | 25c | 78.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…8058backed Hernandez | 78c | 77.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Hernandez | 70c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9789…21d1backed Allen | 24c | 73.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…ac2ebacked Allen | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Allen | 24c | 71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…f21bbacked Hernandez | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Hernandez | 76c | 68.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…04a3backed Hernandez | 75c | 54.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…4df2backed Hernandez | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367d…06c5backed Allen | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Allen | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Allen | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Hernandez | 68c | 47.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c56…186abacked Hernandez | 77c | 42.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Allen | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa522…ea51backed Allen | 25c | 39.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…e7d1backed Allen | 32c | 38.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b6…8ad0backed Allen | 50c | 33.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c93…a00bbacked Hernandez | 70c | 32.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…f97bbacked Allen | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f3…f6b1backed Hernandez | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…7336backed Allen | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Hernandez | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Allen vs. Hernandezthis page
- Cejudo vs. SongSong won
- Menifield vs. WalkerMenifield won
- Silva vs. BaghdasaryanSilva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.