Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0373d0862cd268ad2393de9dbe942492dddaf6507bc7aeb38ec207ccdd98466b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 69c | 3,234$2,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245.62 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,284$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 21c | 1,001$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…f001backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 71c | 722$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.62 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…abf2backed Yes | 29c | 700$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 28c | 561$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 74c | 503.7$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.7 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 29c | 432$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.72 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7556…f7e4backed No | 69c | 410.29$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 69c | 399.98$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 66c | 350$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…3082backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 319.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.06 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 73c | 299.99$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.99 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…f391backed Yes | 29c | 254.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7f…400dbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 21c | 166.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 53c | 157$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed Yes | 32c | 154.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7f…d665backed No | 67c | 149.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 120.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e16…84d7backed Yes | 29c | 115$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked No | 71c | 103.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651e…76cebacked No | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…51c3backed Yes | 33c | 102.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 31c | 97.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 37c | 92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb0…b432backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 25c | 88.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a42…36dcbacked No | 58c | 85.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 64c | 75.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 73c | 71.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 29c | 69.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee7…1710backed No | 57c | 67.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 73c | 54.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 50.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…6f4fbacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 60c | 42.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…ee01backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…5ffcbacked Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 80c | 29.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 46c | 27.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41c5…8c72backed Yes | 49c | 23.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.