Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7f7a5a65236699bda705189b4c536670d6a14821a546477b9e8b08a5a25e3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 20c | 5,269$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,237.12 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed No | 80c | 4,635$3,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,708 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 75c | 1,142$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 74c | 997.45$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.71 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 75c | 834.67$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.82 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 42c | 744.75$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.61 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7556…f7e4backed No | 79c | 404.25$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 27c | 375$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 51c | 306.12$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 28c | 220$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 25c | 202$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…be09backed Yes | 30c | 189.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed No | 72c | 170$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 26c | 142.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 80c | 132.68$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…5c25backed No | 78c | 113.75$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…d7ffbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…1fcabacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…abf2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 24c | 95.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 26c | 94.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed No | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f86…7b89backed Yes | 27c | 49.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +265.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2169…4209backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…47a4backed Yes | 26c | 39.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f2…b8a9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed No | 77c | 16.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…6367backed No | 76c | 15.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…5621backed No | 77c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.