Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee713b962d078edd60cc379ddeba60fb7762a95f667b3605b5eec187b638acf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 17c | 4,686$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.48 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 18c | 2,340$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.85 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 16c | 1,984$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 18c | 1,937$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 18c | 1,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.1 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 73c | 1,341$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed No | 18c | 900$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 27c | 889$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.03 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 25c | 693.36$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7873…7440backed No | 21c | 560.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 75c | 500$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 22c | 461.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 15c | 303.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed No | 18c | 245.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 18c | 223.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 16c | 208.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 17c | 195$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 26c | 184$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…28a6backed Yes | 77c | 172$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 24c | 139.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…9a43backed No | 24c | 133.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 16c | 133.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 73c | 130.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04fc…6cacbacked Yes | 75c | 120.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 17c | 119$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed No | 27c | 109$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 13c | 103.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a42…36dcbacked No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 26c | 92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7101…aea1backed Yes | 74c | 65.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890b…17ddbacked Yes | 77c | 62.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 50.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…1b9abacked Yes | 79c | 37.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…cd1dbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb0…b432backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…28a3backed Yes | 77c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…4395backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…c391backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…8705backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…fe4bbacked Yes | 75c | 24.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58e…ebbabacked Yes | 80c | 23.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e31…1bbdbacked Yes | 74c | 23.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 79c | 20.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9600…e19abacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa73b…66abbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 79c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77eb…e2bebacked Yes | 79c | 12.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.