Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15238941cee2b8d336a53dd1a6817aefcadfe62a63907391ae6617d1bd269081
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 75c | 9,445$7,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,099.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 76c | 6,645$5,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,057.52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 22c | 6,044$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,732.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 78c | 3,077$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.63 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 25c | 2,957$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,217.77 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 80c | 2,889$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 15c | 2,767$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 12cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 79c | 2,095$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 70c | 1,777$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed No | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 75c | 1,250$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 13c | 1,094$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.12 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,078$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…4f7fbacked No | 73c | 1,034$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,009$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.8 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 21c | 1,002$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 80c | 1,000$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…442abacked No | 66c | 980.56$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c48…27f6backed Yes | 18c | 950$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +177%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 74c | 932.39$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…ee1dbacked Yes | 23c | 904.83$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…ecf7backed Yes | 24c | 885.82$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 25c | 818.51$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 23c | 807.41$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa27a…6b26backed Yes | 30c | 791.03$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…20ecbacked Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed Yes | 27c | 670$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 3c | 625$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 3c | 625$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 74c | 624.54$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 74c | 600$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…ba9abacked No | 76c | 556.56$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 38c | 555.75$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.19 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…f1cbbacked Yes | 29c | 505.61$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 72c | 499.99$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 73c | 461.31$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 72c | 447.74$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.93 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 17c | 443.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.62 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 443.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.33 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f3…79e8backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…506abacked Yes | 27c | 413$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 403.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.47 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed Yes | 26c | 377.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7556…f7e4backed No | 65c | 363.44$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 14c | 326.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.08 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…1b4cbacked Yes | 67c | 310$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 20c | 300$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed Yes | 15c | 280$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 77c | 263.48$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.88 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…a5afbacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 74c | 244.52$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.72 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a59…dbeabacked Yes | 20c | 244.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 26c | 213.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…db17backed Yes | 22c | 212.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.99 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 18c | 199.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 78c | 192.76$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25c4…2c00backed Yes | 16c | 188.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 28c | 176.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…e3b3backed Yes | 20c | 156.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +395.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…6917backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…b4a3backed No | 76c | 149.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 28c | 149.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 75c | 145$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 72c | 143.39$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…6baabacked Yes | 28c | 143.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…91c8backed Yes | 30c | 135.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +90%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 133.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 18c | 130.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 22c | 125.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944b…27d3backed Yes | 27c | 125$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 23cpaid | +363%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 29c | 123.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…2a12backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9d…2034backed No | 72c | 104.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 74c | 101.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 79c | 101.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1836…db98backed Yes | 30c | 101.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…33c1backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860a…2e92backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…d7ffbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.