TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,810

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f72…83adbacked No75c9,445$7,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,099.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No76c6,645$5,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,057.522240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4759…ec88backed Yes22c6,044$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,732.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+59.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No78c3,077$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,387.632240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes25c3,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes25c2,957$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.771643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked No80c2,889$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,311.581428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes15c2,767$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.31per pick12cpaid+122.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No79c2,095$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.22757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No70c1,777$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.611225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No73c1,500$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No76c1,500$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No75c1,250$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes13c1,094$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.123756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes35c1,078$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.212240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e6…4f7fbacked No73c1,034$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes30c1,009$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.87737.7%29 W · 48 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes21c1,002$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.82630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No80c1,000$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.771540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x018a…442abacked No66c980.56$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c48…27f6backed Yes18c950$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+177%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74da…1ba5backed No74c932.39$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.32742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf1…ee1dbacked Yes23c904.83$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.72944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6ab…ecf7backed Yes24c885.82$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.42955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No25c818.51$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-78.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes23c807.41$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.411323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-38.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa27a…6b26backed Yes30c791.03$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb5…20ecbacked Yes27c740.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd834…65d2backed Yes27c670$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No3c625$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75205%1 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+150%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No3c625$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.752114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+432.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No74c624.54$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.56453.1%34 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5f…19bcbacked No74c600$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4441145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd653…ba9abacked No76c556.56$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes38c555.75$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.192045%9 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23bd…f1cbbacked Yes29c505.61$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.2616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid-43.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes27c500$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3651631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed No72c499.99$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked No73c461.31$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.531643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No72c447.74$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.937160.6%43 W · 28 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes17c443.91$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.6219026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes13c443.19$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.336412.5%8 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf81b…89b1backed Yes23c434.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.782119%4 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28f3…79e8backed Yes24c416.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x495f…506abacked Yes27c413$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+84.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c403.93$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.4724046.3%111 W · 129 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed Yes26c377.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.78955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes27c370.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.371533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+27%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7556…f7e4backed No65c363.44$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.98540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes20c350$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2802450%12 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes14c326.08$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.08238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b02…1b4cbacked Yes67c310$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2165637.5%21 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes20c300$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+154.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc39a…2214backed Yes15c280$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.41947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No77c263.48$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.881711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-56.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x232f…a5afbacked Yes25c250$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No74c244.52$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.721844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a59…dbeabacked Yes20c244.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+144.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Yes26c213.77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.34650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe415…db17backed Yes22c212.73$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.93650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+54.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1482030%6 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-58.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562910.3%3 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-54.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked No73c200$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1461526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a80…2ce6backed No75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes15c199.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.99185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes18c199.9$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.11119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No78c192.76$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.772437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-41.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x25c4…2c00backed Yes16c188.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe679…f0e0backed Yes28c180$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+138.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Yes28c176.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.931315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…e3b3backed Yes20c156.18$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+395.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6757…6917backed Yes20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb80d…b4a3backed No76c149.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes28c149.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.463026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+42.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed No75c145$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.051250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No72c143.39$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.245034%17 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc759…6baabacked Yes28c143.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes21c142.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8521…91c8backed Yes30c135.7$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+90%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No74c133.38$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5918135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes18c130.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.991513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-42%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes22c125.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.161030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944b…27d3backed Yes27c125$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick23cpaid+363%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a61…eb03backed Yes29c123.33$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.93666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+92.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb94…2a12backed Yes22c113.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+51.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked No80c110$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9d…2034backed No72c104.79$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No74c101.71$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.932055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No79c101.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1836…db98backed Yes30c101.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+110.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745131.4%16 W · 35 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+68.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0516…dbc2backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30ab…33c1backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x860a…2e92backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08d0…d7ffbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+138.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.