Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7f226c24654272d59e04d84009c8643cf38fdd2765a202795a17eaa68ae3abb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 0c | 7,530$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,925$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…4f0ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,279$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…f001backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 7c | 861.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 7c | 749.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed Yes | 5c | 697.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…43debacked Yes | 6c | 684.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…be09backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…555abacked Yes | 6c | 389.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 14c | 350$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…d439backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 8c | 275.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692f…05d3backed Yes | 8c | 245$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 5c | 206.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 7c | 205.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…014cbacked Yes | 6c | 192.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…abf2backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.