Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dc7da0c46467e1617c5c5cb24a8f020937935064d414dbb9683c7a747190def
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked No | 1c | 3,822$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 3,184$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 57c | 2,609$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.32 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 42c | 2,552$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.62 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 58c | 2,522$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 1,875$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 1,875$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 61c | 1,234$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 60c | 1,088$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.86 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 40c | 979.06$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 59c | 899.98$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 52c | 896.79$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.33 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 5c | 816.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…a5afbacked Yes | 63c | 789.75$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 58c | 710.43$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 44c | 686.08$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 12cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed No | 29c | 625.38$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.92 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 580.45$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.41 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 50c | 579.68$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.03 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 66c | 550$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 69c | 499.98$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 50c | 498.61$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 63c | 470$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 53c | 399.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 373.91$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.76 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14bf…e895backed Yes | 40c | 370.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 36c | 366.65$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 44c | 365.91$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 353.58$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 63c | 333.82$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.63 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 41c | 300$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 37c | 275$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 66c | 245.19$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…d289backed Yes | 31c | 222.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +122%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed No | 59c | 216.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 22c | 208.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 59c | 204.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.48 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a2…0b5bbacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 38c | 190$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 63c | 180.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 34c | 180$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 62c | 169.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 38c | 169.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549d…aa7ebacked Yes | 41c | 169.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 69c | 160$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 53c | 154.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 62c | 152.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed No | 16c | 151.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 34c | 148$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7101…aea1backed Yes | 43c | 121.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 39c | 119.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 59c | 118.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 46c | 110.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4216…dfe8backed No | 60c | 107.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 63c | 104.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…28a3backed Yes | 49c | 102.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 59c | 85.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x946a…3b6cbacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3924…8ba6backed Yes | 41c | 69.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fe2dbacked No | 60c | 69.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2070backed No | 60c | 69.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d1…4c11backed Yes | 41c | 69.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…1db4backed No | 60c | 68.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 39c | 65.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65a…e27dbacked No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7404…d580backed No | 57c | 61.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…be21backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +204.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…7a99backed Yes | 35c | 58.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…eec0backed Yes | 42c | 52.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…058abacked No | 59c | 52.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 55c | 51.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…b3ddbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5f…577dbacked Yes | 44c | 46.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…a0babacked No | 59c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 57c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…acb9backed No | 57c | 45.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…b402backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b52…6e71backed Yes | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…e52cbacked No | 60c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cc…d863backed No | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa8…50a6backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…fb44backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…d9c9backed No | 60c | 36.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.