Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d361339f82525f081a40a01bcae8fbf4a77ad5baecbb3dfbac52eb8f0fc323c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 39c | 5,294$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,236.39 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 42c | 1,713$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.07 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 71c | 1,100$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked No | 33c | 780.43$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 62c | 584.12$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 45c | 565$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.84 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 3c | 531.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 58c | 476.1$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 25c | 471.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.48 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Yes | 43c | 358.93$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7556…f7e4backed No | 56c | 345.85$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed Yes | 44c | 306.05$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa27a…6b26backed Yes | 66c | 304.85$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7f…d665backed Yes | 49c | 303.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed No | 62c | 287$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed No | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 52c | 253.27$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 50c | 236.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c5…e2a6backed Yes | 67c | 206.63$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 57c | 189.92$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 26c | 177.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.31 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 41c | 134.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed No | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed No | 59c | 120.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c14…3371backed Yes | 40c | 113.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 20c | 109.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3490…dbbfbacked No | 55c | 108.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 75c | 108.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…8fdbbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…d070backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 99.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 56c | 99.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…9ccdbacked Yes | 43c | 93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f8…30afbacked Yes | 40c | 79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 44c | 74.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…1430backed Yes | 44c | 67.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…49d3backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…90f4backed No | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0c…4b07backed Yes | 75c | 53.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 50c | 52.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…b4debacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +201.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed Yes | 75c | 43.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…be6fbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 41c | 37.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb0…b432backed Yes | 55c | 36.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…58d5backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 68c | 26.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…06f8backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed Yes | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed No | 59c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…a368backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.