Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b38dcda51950de696458b8a7d7060c0599acd8d52a008c266550c40c79c3e07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 27c | 20,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 3c | 16,814$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 74c | 12,700$9,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,251.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…07a4backed No | 75c | 10,553$7,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 70c | 10,044$7,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,013.29 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 79c | 9,162$7,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 72c | 6,952$5,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.04 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 25c | 4,160$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…f391backed No | 71c | 3,923$2,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 26c | 3,713$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 74c | 2,963$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 2,785$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.36 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,626$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.62 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 79c | 1,700$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 75c | 1,600$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,555$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…a5afbacked Yes | 29c | 1,499$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…948abacked Yes | 27c | 1,472$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 26c | 1,460$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 12c | 1,401$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 29c | 1,224$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 1,186$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.66 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 70c | 1,170$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.89 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…9545backed No | 75c | 1,147$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…c7f7backed Yes | 24c | 1,136$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.67 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed Yes | 27c | 1,129$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 74c | 1,123$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 69c | 1,055$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.48 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 34c | 1,027$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…ca6abacked Yes | 30c | 1,010$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…1b4cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,010$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.05 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 64c | 999.99$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 25c | 980.74$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.6 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…95fbbacked Yes | 27c | 952.89$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…05a9backed Yes | 12c | 852.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 810.74$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.68 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 65c | 782.2$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…1297backed Yes | 26c | 776.67$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 22c | 773.58$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 23c | 772.22$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x311a…b58cbacked Yes | 30c | 741.59$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 73c | 713.03$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f35…9bbfbacked Yes | 38c | 690.69$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…1ddcbacked Yes | 3c | 681.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes | 20c | 667.07$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.41 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…3ce1backed Yes | 25c | 649.62$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 21c | 630.3$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 613.2$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.2 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 25c | 611$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.42 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3249…d0e8backed Yes | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 75c | 590.53$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 24c | 590.26$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 24c | 574.14$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 36c | 564.59$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed Yes | 27c | 561.43$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23a…aa7ebacked Yes | 25c | 551.68$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 71c | 499.99$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…2dc6backed Yes | 26c | 495.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c48…27f6backed Yes | 24c | 450$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +177%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…5025backed Yes | 24c | 437.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 76c | 429.98$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 67c | 419.55$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked Yes | 24c | 418$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 62c | 412.82$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 78c | 400$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…a236backed No | 76c | 400$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…b3c9backed Yes | 31c | 399.74$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…d14bbacked Yes | 31c | 390.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bc…d0bbbacked Yes | 24c | 374.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 66c | 367.07$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…ecf7backed Yes | 36c | 360$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed No | 70c | 357.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…8545backed No | 73c | 356.74$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked Yes | 33c | 349.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…4f0ebacked Yes | 29c | 349.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 22c | 349.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 74c | 346.62$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Yes | 28c | 338.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e9…8d70backed Yes | 42c | 319.04$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 24c | 306.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 38c | 305.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…4a06backed Yes | 28c | 304.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…be09backed Yes | 33c | 300.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 80c | 300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…c21fbacked Yes | 33c | 299.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 28c | 269.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 76c | 263.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 59c | 255.12$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14bf…e895backed Yes | 28c | 251.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.