Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb146887546d8b19d236f10c247baa0c3fef5d6ca242b24b0ed3b66b857cdc71c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes | 18c | 6,329$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,508$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,980$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 11c | 1,842$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.1 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,815$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…f001backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 77c | 828.68$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 13c | 793.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…1b4cbacked Yes | 61c | 610$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 17c | 589.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 20c | 511.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…abf2backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 11c | 451.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74eb…03ddbacked Yes | 7c | 409.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 3c | 386.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 14c | 359.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7f…400dbacked Yes | 13c | 305.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 5c | 225.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…ecf7backed Yes | 12c | 216.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 14c | 195$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 10c | 195$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…c725backed Yes | 13c | 183.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 80c | 170$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…0fd2backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.