Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf753191a0ecf02044455f863c8dfebd9ad5b5fda7229d73637bb5a1150042bda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 6,836$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.32 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…35b1backed No | 2c | 5,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 4c | 4,996$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.91 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…089cbacked No | 3c | 4,849$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 2c | 4,465$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 4c | 3,785$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954a…144abacked No | 7c | 2,834$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fa…e14cbacked No | 2c | 2,415$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa014…8d52backed No | 3c | 2,410$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 4c | 2,236$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 3c | 1,900$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…ad41backed No | 3c | 1,412$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 4c | 1,373$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked No | 2c | 1,368$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 2c | 1,305$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a6…6a5dbacked No | 4c | 1,270$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed No | 4c | 1,236$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 3c | 1,134$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 2c | 1,082$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked No | 2c | 1,057$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…f7f4backed No | 2c | 1,009$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed No | 4c | 999.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 4c | 999.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 2c | 999$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 3c | 914.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed No | 7c | 715.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…dbc7backed No | 3c | 699.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed No | 3c | 670.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f3…79e8backed No | 3c | 667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…f1cbbacked No | 3c | 635.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…0fd2backed No | 3c | 629.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…f6a9backed No | 3c | 595.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 2c | 581.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked No | 3c | 580$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…6b3abacked No | 4c | 510.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…d439backed No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 3c | 489$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…a7b3backed No | 6c | 450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3f…0468backed No | 5c | 416.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed No | 3c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74eb…03ddbacked No | 3c | 348.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed No | 3c | 323.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked No | 3c | 320$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…da6abacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…73c2backed No | 4c | 255.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…1794backed No | 6c | 197.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.