TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe2ba…e8cc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
124
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Dota2, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT537.5%4 W · 49 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-61.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.5
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$428.44
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.58
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$388.91
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$417.33
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.12
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.35
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250.58
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$241.23
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.28
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.98
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$870Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$869.62
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$381.25
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.9
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.2
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$471.84
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,964Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,964.3
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.4
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-52.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eventbrite (EB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$393.55
Will BuzzFeed (BZFD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.11
Will Best Buy (BBY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$51.96
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$59.19
Will Monster Beverage (MNST) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Dell Technologies (DELL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$19.9
Will Intuit (INTU) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.43
Will Microchip Technology (MCHP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$19.52
Will KKR & Co (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+426.3%+$43.87
Will Moog (MOG.A) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$146.09
Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$40.78
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$333.81
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.81
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,175Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,174.56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+55.2%+$109.08
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.96
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$54.33
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+63.1%+$139.38
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. Cavaliersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.33
Warriors vs. Mavericksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+123.5%+$37.17
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$32.43
Jazz vs. Trail Blazersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
All 4 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+442.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+442.2%+$463.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Senators vs. Rangersbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$19.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times November 15-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$12.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$20.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$36.52
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.