Earnings · resolved market
Will Best Buy (BBY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0863fe9101671982e00babd27f3864e4c5871f248f757fc2adbf05944560ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6967…7f28backed No | 31c | 501.08$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.22 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 69c | 460.54$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.77 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…4d45backed Yes | 76c | 325.97$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 21c | 238.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 20c | 218.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked No | 30c | 172.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 156.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…4243backed No | 32c | 155.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 150.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed No | 30c | 135.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 17c | 132.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 77c | 129.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 23c | 112.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa310…5d83backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed No | 30c | 96.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 31c | 95.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 16c | 89.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe138…ce9abacked No | 36c | 83.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 70c | 80.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…428fbacked No | 35c | 72.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 63.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed No | 24c | 56.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 24c | 53.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…ea0cbacked Yes | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…007bbacked Yes | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962a…aa6cbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 67c | 49.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…8ea4backed Yes | 76c | 32.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked Yes | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 28.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068d…0d9ebacked Yes | 71c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 57c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3480…a03dbacked Yes | 70c | 22.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1d27backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…313fbacked Yes | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 77cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…9904backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a3…abc7backed Yes | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.