TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R House

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,833,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,132,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,833,432 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e74…71bbbacked Yes2c173,417$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,502.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes1c127,258$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43213540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a2…6aadbacked Yes2c121,986$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-57.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c116,790$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.326021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb0e…41aebacked Yes1c107,502$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6666…f5e9backed Yes2c102,022$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f82…00b4backed Yes3c100,831$3,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,129.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5abb…8633backed Yes2c100,041$2,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,207.07742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba6…0218backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9636…18d4backed Yes1c89,787$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked Yes1c83,898$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.82810.7%3 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes1c74,629$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.43234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb626…3a10backed Yes1c73,667$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes2c72,153$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a95…5d71backed Yes1c71,297$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes1c68,941$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.18316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa5…898abacked Yes1c66,057$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec1…467abacked Yes1c65,621$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.81323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes1c57,905$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.8280%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes2c55,989$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.45263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-90.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c52,600$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.38921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes2c50,053$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4a2…63cdbacked Yes2c49,965$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67aa…30a6backed Yes2c48,450$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb53c…cce1backed Yes2c46,098$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2259…5091backed Yes1c45,770$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe812…6f21backed Yes1c40,476$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d5…4699backed Yes1c38,780$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.481442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+84.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac4a…7617backed Yes1c36,222$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6913…884dbacked Yes1c36,178$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c33,547$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.86287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bfa…9616backed Yes1c33,252$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8c…0c58backed Yes1c32,954$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1784…7a77backed Yes1c32,889$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.11450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c83…544dbacked Yes1c32,654$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d2…59a7backed Yes1c32,654$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes3c32,448$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.7317225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567c…ae11backed Yes1c31,893$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes1c23,626$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.1114742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96cb…6cf3backed Yes1c23,370$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x831b…eed5backed Yes1c23,184$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e2…0f38backed Yes2c22,035$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.91811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes1c20,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2604346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4deb…89e7backed Yes2c19,994$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.04812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-79.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c19,972$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.4796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…63a3backed Yes1c19,708$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-86.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2178…7b38backed Yes2c17,493$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f6…21cbbacked Yes1c15,851$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed Yes1c14,131$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.441526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7d…6cbabacked Yes2c13,161$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a45…4a71backed Yes1c13,106$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2390%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90cb…6ce1backed Yes2c12,969$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.35100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd47a…64b0backed Yes1c12,809$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.85812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-81.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes1c12,752$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd1…3c76backed Yes1c12,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes1c12,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c76…ded5backed Yes1c11,354$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.26185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-91.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes2c11,058$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x519f…3616backed Yes3c11,016$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.73825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb04b…8636backed Yes2c11,000$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74d1…1a60backed Yes2c10,984$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.7490%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0fa…9cf0backed Yes1c10,848$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1160%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30be…34cbbacked Yes1c10,316$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f8a…f1a3backed Yes1c10,082$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffda…1e18backed Yes2c10,015$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…0286backed Yes2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes2c10,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebb…f148backed Yes1c10,000$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14870%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ee…e6a9backed Yes2c9,835$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8538…cd51backed Yes2c9,779$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes1c9,761$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.31007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa2e…61d3backed Yes2c9,652$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes1c9,600$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.44318.6%8 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cb…73eabacked Yes1c9,022$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb914…3713backed Yes1c8,965$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…bcb9backed Yes1c8,876$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b19…fb2dbacked Yes1c8,644$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Yes1c8,319$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef61…c705backed Yes2c7,977$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef44…d48fbacked Yes1c7,692$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0fd…b737backed Yes1c7,519$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…673ebacked Yes1c7,420$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17bf…15a3backed Yes1c7,332$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa433…6341backed Yes1c7,267$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x529c…2ea9backed Yes1c7,003$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes1c6,801$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.47420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc18…626fbacked Yes2c6,179$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes1c6,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes1c5,999$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.998640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadcb…787ebacked Yes1c5,836$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf93…80f0backed Yes1c5,597$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57e5…7a75backed Yes1c5,480$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274b…da58backed Yes1c5,361$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.25110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0547…9926backed Yes2c5,333$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dce…b793backed Yes2c5,077$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf5…fdb8backed Yes1c5,044$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+47.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e2…5786backed Yes1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.611330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes1c5,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6015646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.