Us Politics · resolved market
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R House
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3353f0005d273aa63e233aa107e71cf8d95744c6209e8e0c857d6555768190f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,833,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,132,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,833,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e74…71bbbacked Yes | 2c | 173,417$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,502.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 1c | 127,258$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…6aadbacked Yes | 2c | 121,986$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 116,790$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.32 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0e…41aebacked Yes | 1c | 107,502$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6666…f5e9backed Yes | 2c | 102,022$1,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…00b4backed Yes | 3c | 100,831$3,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,129.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…8633backed Yes | 2c | 100,041$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…18d4backed Yes | 1c | 89,787$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 1c | 83,898$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.8 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 1c | 74,629$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.43 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…3a10backed Yes | 1c | 73,667$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes | 2c | 72,153$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…5d71backed Yes | 1c | 71,297$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 1c | 68,941$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.18 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…898abacked Yes | 1c | 66,057$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked Yes | 1c | 65,621$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 1c | 57,905$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 2c | 55,989$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.45 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 52,600$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.3 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes | 2c | 50,053$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…63cdbacked Yes | 2c | 49,965$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67aa…30a6backed Yes | 2c | 48,450$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…cce1backed Yes | 2c | 46,098$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2259…5091backed Yes | 1c | 45,770$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…6f21backed Yes | 1c | 40,476$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…4699backed Yes | 1c | 38,780$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…7617backed Yes | 1c | 36,222$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6913…884dbacked Yes | 1c | 36,178$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 33,547$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.86 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…9616backed Yes | 1c | 33,252$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8c…0c58backed Yes | 1c | 32,954$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1784…7a77backed Yes | 1c | 32,889$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c83…544dbacked Yes | 1c | 32,654$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d2…59a7backed Yes | 1c | 32,654$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 32,448$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.73 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567c…ae11backed Yes | 1c | 31,893$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 1c | 23,626$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.11 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96cb…6cf3backed Yes | 1c | 23,370$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 1c | 23,184$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 2c | 22,035$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.9 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4deb…89e7backed Yes | 2c | 19,994$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 19,972$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.47 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 1c | 19,708$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2178…7b38backed Yes | 2c | 17,493$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f6…21cbbacked Yes | 1c | 15,851$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 1c | 14,131$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7d…6cbabacked Yes | 2c | 13,161$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 1c | 13,106$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…6ce1backed Yes | 2c | 12,969$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…64b0backed Yes | 1c | 12,809$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 1c | 12,752$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd1…3c76backed Yes | 1c | 12,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Yes | 1c | 11,354$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.26 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 2c | 11,058$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…3616backed Yes | 3c | 11,016$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…8636backed Yes | 2c | 11,000$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 2c | 10,984$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fa…9cf0backed Yes | 1c | 10,848$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30be…34cbbacked Yes | 1c | 10,316$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8a…f1a3backed Yes | 1c | 10,082$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffda…1e18backed Yes | 2c | 10,015$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0286backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…f148backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…e6a9backed Yes | 2c | 9,835$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…cd51backed Yes | 2c | 9,779$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,761$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2e…61d3backed Yes | 2c | 9,652$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 1c | 9,600$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…73eabacked Yes | 1c | 9,022$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb914…3713backed Yes | 1c | 8,965$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…bcb9backed Yes | 1c | 8,876$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b19…fb2dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,644$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff9…bb89backed Yes | 1c | 8,319$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 2c | 7,977$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…d48fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,692$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…b737backed Yes | 1c | 7,519$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…673ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,420$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…15a3backed Yes | 1c | 7,332$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…6341backed Yes | 1c | 7,267$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…2ea9backed Yes | 1c | 7,003$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 1c | 6,801$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc18…626fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 1c | 5,999$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…787ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,836$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…80f0backed Yes | 1c | 5,597$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…7a75backed Yes | 1c | 5,480$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…da58backed Yes | 1c | 5,361$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9926backed Yes | 2c | 5,333$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dce…b793backed Yes | 2c | 5,077$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 5,044$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…5786backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R Housethis page
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: OtherNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HouseYes won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.