TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R House

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,332,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,373,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,332,606 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb6a2…6aadbacked Yes1c281,431$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-57.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e74…71bbbacked Yes1c279,814$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c32…3945backed Yes1c200,000$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c197,216$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.236021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b2…4243backed Yes1c131,716$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.25520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c119,502$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.18287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes1c100,061$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes1c100,000$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.642015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdba6…0218backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4a2…63cdbacked Yes1c79,264$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes1c70,846$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.3263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-90.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked Yes1c64,202$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6242810.7%3 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x708f…f236backed Yes1c55,792$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.62812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67aa…30a6backed Yes1c55,114$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes1c46,325$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.11234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e2…0f38backed Yes1c39,908$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2971811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x587a…74ebbacked Yes1c36,892$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-36%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes2c36,468$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.7380%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb0e…41aebacked Yes1c35,276$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd0…076bbacked Yes1c31,862$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0969…9729backed Yes2c30,330$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070c…eb00backed Yes1c29,916$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c9…07bbbacked Yes1c29,671$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d79…1b73backed Yes1c29,284$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebbc…4c42backed Yes1c29,142$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53af…671cbacked Yes1c29,086$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d36…e7aebacked Yes1c28,350$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a90…265dbacked Yes1c26,250$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.52010%2 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x831b…eed5backed Yes1c24,894$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes1c22,872$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.981010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-75.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f06…d6a6backed Yes1c22,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes1c22,020$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f8a…f1a3backed Yes1c21,865$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.4360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…63a3backed Yes1c20,909$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-86.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65eb…e197backed Yes1c18,251$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585e…bd59backed Yes1c18,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes1c18,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4deb…89e7backed Yes1c17,500$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.42812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-79.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90cb…6ce1backed Yes1c16,950$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x014f…fb37backed Yes1c16,412$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9151…7595backed Yes1c15,400$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.31414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b2…da44backed Yes1c14,511$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec33…69a5backed Yes1c14,370$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes1c13,750$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c13,166$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.322847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd47a…64b0backed Yes1c12,808$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.55812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-81.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x92c4…8767backed Yes1c12,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1cb…73eabacked Yes1c12,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2178…7b38backed Yes1c12,009$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8538…cd51backed Yes1c11,941$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0fd…b737backed Yes1c11,044$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes1c10,561$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.117225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf229…f193backed Yes1c10,098$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f8…e261backed Yes1c10,077$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda03…65febacked Yes1c10,007$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803135.5%11 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes1c10,000$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.822343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-74.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a45…4a71backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f21…690ebacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes1c9,375$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes1c9,104$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.432737%10 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+58.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa433…6341backed Yes1c9,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed Yes0c8,257$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.781526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x675c…2224backed Yes1c8,241$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-59.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e41…cf4dbacked Yes1c7,747$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c7,091$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.842400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff2b…0c88backed Yes1c6,875$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.93327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ad9…4760backed Yes1c6,463$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.09812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ce…071cbacked Yes0c6,429$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef61…c705backed Yes1c6,425$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x274b…da58backed Yes1c6,342$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.75110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bce…35bcbacked Yes1c6,258$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed1a…6c60backed Yes1c6,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf804…4ea9backed Yes1c6,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc55b…cb38backed Yes1c6,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…11fdbacked Yes1c6,051$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes1c6,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0a…24d9backed Yes1c5,740$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1870%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc818…b6ddbacked Yes1c5,671$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0507…40b8backed Yes1c5,556$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044b…ce4fbacked Yes1c5,488$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b39…ca6bbacked Yes1c5,450$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ebb…f148backed Yes1c5,152$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6770%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a0…92b5backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.91520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf76d…197bbacked Yes1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca6…6b28backed Yes1c5,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2037844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e23…ebf5backed Yes1c4,898$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0e6…2358backed Yes1c4,800$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes1c4,712$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c4,530$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b34…c99ebacked Yes1c4,310$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8e2c…475fbacked Yes1c4,255$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed5…8ccfbacked Yes1c4,125$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa177…e36ebacked Yes1c4,122$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1a…b2b6backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes1c4,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6c…efa3backed Yes1c4,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.