Us Politics · resolved market
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R House
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb958c943dab682a60d421effb917b6b66760905c23e58efd22699f278185444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,332,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,373,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,332,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6a2…6aadbacked Yes | 1c | 281,431$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e74…71bbbacked Yes | 1c | 279,814$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c32…3945backed Yes | 1c | 200,000$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,532 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 197,216$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.23 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b2…4243backed Yes | 1c | 131,716$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 119,502$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.18 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 100,061$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.64 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…63cdbacked Yes | 1c | 79,264$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 1c | 70,846$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.3 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 1c | 64,202$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed Yes | 1c | 55,792$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67aa…30a6backed Yes | 1c | 55,114$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 1c | 46,325$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.11 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 1c | 39,908$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…74ebbacked Yes | 1c | 36,892$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 2c | 36,468$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0e…41aebacked Yes | 1c | 35,276$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…076bbacked Yes | 1c | 31,862$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…9729backed Yes | 2c | 30,330$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070c…eb00backed Yes | 1c | 29,916$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c9…07bbbacked Yes | 1c | 29,671$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d79…1b73backed Yes | 1c | 29,284$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebbc…4c42backed Yes | 1c | 29,142$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53af…671cbacked Yes | 1c | 29,086$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…e7aebacked Yes | 1c | 28,350$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…265dbacked Yes | 1c | 26,250$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 1c | 24,894$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 1c | 22,872$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…d6a6backed Yes | 1c | 22,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 1c | 22,020$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8a…f1a3backed Yes | 1c | 21,865$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 1c | 20,909$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Yes | 1c | 18,251$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585e…bd59backed Yes | 1c | 18,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 1c | 18,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4deb…89e7backed Yes | 1c | 17,500$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…6ce1backed Yes | 1c | 16,950$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…fb37backed Yes | 1c | 16,412$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…7595backed Yes | 1c | 15,400$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…da44backed Yes | 1c | 14,511$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec33…69a5backed Yes | 1c | 14,370$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes | 1c | 13,750$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 13,166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…64b0backed Yes | 1c | 12,808$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…8767backed Yes | 1c | 12,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…73eabacked Yes | 1c | 12,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2178…7b38backed Yes | 1c | 12,009$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…cd51backed Yes | 1c | 11,941$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…b737backed Yes | 1c | 11,044$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 10,561$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…f193backed Yes | 1c | 10,098$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f8…e261backed Yes | 1c | 10,077$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…65febacked Yes | 1c | 10,007$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…690ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 1c | 9,375$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 1c | 9,104$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…6341backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 0c | 8,257$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 1c | 8,241$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e41…cf4dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,747$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,091$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…0c88backed Yes | 1c | 6,875$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…4760backed Yes | 1c | 6,463$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ce…071cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 1c | 6,425$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…da58backed Yes | 1c | 6,342$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bce…35bcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,258$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1a…6c60backed Yes | 1c | 6,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…4ea9backed Yes | 1c | 6,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55b…cb38backed Yes | 1c | 6,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…11fdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,051$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0a…24d9backed Yes | 1c | 5,740$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc818…b6ddbacked Yes | 1c | 5,671$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0507…40b8backed Yes | 1c | 5,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044b…ce4fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,488$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…ca6bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,450$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…f148backed Yes | 1c | 5,152$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…92b5backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…197bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e23…ebf5backed Yes | 1c | 4,898$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…2358backed Yes | 1c | 4,800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,712$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 4,530$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…c99ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,310$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…475fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,255$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…8ccfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…e36ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,122$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1a…b2b6backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…efa3backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R Housethis page
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: OtherNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HouseYes won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.