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Us Politics · resolved market

2024 Balance of Power: Other

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,501,103
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,263,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,501,103 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c3,582,695$5,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,148.21230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3273…2739backed Yes0c551,887$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b4e…dd2cbacked Yes0c551,614$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c429,795$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.86021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf70a…e7dfbacked Yes0c354,978$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes0c286,904$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e7…1e69backed Yes0c261,856$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c52…3cdfbacked Yes0c204,325$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes0c193,340$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.16329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+65.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fed…94e9backed Yes0c158,534$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46c8…47c1backed Yes0c148,942$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7de8…ea98backed Yes0c143,498$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fa9…2744backed Yes0c140,192$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa414…188abacked Yes0c140,134$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b2…4243backed Yes0c131,716$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.83520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d2…fb73backed Yes0c130,227$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes0c128,520$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.16287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff2…55d0backed Yes0c126,572$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes0c120,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes0c119,199$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.638219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdba6…0218backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c99,904$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.811118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick5cpaid+411%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc08…52f3backed Yes0c97,535$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b8…56c2backed Yes0c96,730$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes0c90,302$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c76,138$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.852400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1728…1cfbbacked Yes0c74,998$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes0c64,817$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.39263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-90.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1754…f6c2backed Yes0c60,045$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa739…c0d3backed Yes0c51,980$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e41…cf4dbacked Yes0c51,660$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked Yes0c51,180$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.532810.7%3 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9da1…7086backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bd…e192backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x020a…4313backed Yes0c41,458$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c40,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90cb…6ce1backed Yes0c39,514$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.92100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04fb…2f00backed Yes0c39,250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba7c…bdccbacked Yes0c39,249$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x166d…bbe2backed Yes0c39,094$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde8b…3e0abacked Yes0c38,704$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde06…93ecbacked Yes0c38,500$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc5…3d9abacked Yes0c36,500$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7970%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb228…2734backed Yes0c33,333$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e2…0f38backed Yes0c33,007$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.491811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…6bc0backed Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb21…9ecabacked Yes0c28,035$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x740b…9c87backed Yes0c26,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x823c…5046backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2565…d17bbacked Yes0c24,783$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8028…732abacked Yes0c23,940$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e9…736bbacked Yes0c22,950$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…8e3bbacked Yes0c22,945$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8575…1762backed Yes0c22,250$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a4…2486backed Yes0c22,111$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a6…fba1backed Yes0c21,940$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd73f…8b3dbacked Yes0c21,900$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2470…72c5backed Yes0c21,800$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b97…792cbacked Yes0c21,598$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f0…5fcdbacked Yes0c21,500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c21,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2b…1d0abacked Yes0c20,956$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab30…bdebbacked Yes0c20,752$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d8…1af4backed Yes0c20,676$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd4…daebbacked Yes0c20,672$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d9…2fcbbacked Yes0c20,629$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c2…8f4dbacked Yes0c20,615$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15cc…2b5dbacked Yes0c20,527$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef28…e07ebacked Yes0c20,520$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd88c…a080backed Yes0c20,501$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb730…ca64backed Yes0c20,453$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9259…fed7backed Yes0c20,431$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes0c20,325$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.651118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec80…9425backed Yes0c20,311$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb340…e102backed Yes0c20,294$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb3…c763backed Yes0c20,250$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1108…cb47backed Yes0c20,126$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d06…e414backed Yes0c20,108$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb465…ae14backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82eb…6bb8backed Yes0c20,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbe3…015cbacked Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2504…73b1backed Yes0c19,989$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec33…3718backed Yes0c19,945$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fe…3e06backed Yes0c19,945$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6531…01f9backed Yes0c19,903$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272d…835bbacked Yes0c19,847$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x674c…b4dbbacked Yes0c19,837$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e15…eefcbacked Yes0c19,835$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b5…160ebacked Yes0c19,793$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x058e…db8bbacked Yes0c19,757$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc82d…2e38backed Yes0c19,732$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8840…0831backed Yes0c19,526$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9450…d822backed Yes0c19,428$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27c…2afdbacked Yes0c19,284$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852f…bc74backed Yes0c19,248$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…6f9bbacked Yes0c19,231$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762c…9a3dbacked Yes0c19,211$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…8ce3backed Yes0c19,166$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.