Us Politics · resolved market
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D House
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbee3dba85ba4622e2e1c215adcbdc8f012dc59f904c52ac539db7ad26b20b6d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,535,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,659,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,535,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 24c | 287,992$70,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,402.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 26c | 178,089$47,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,080.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f3…32e8backed Yes | 25c | 150,000$38,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,209.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67aa…30a6backed Yes | 25c | 135,706$34,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,412.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 23c | 112,196$25,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,276.3 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 23c | 101,222$22,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,975.47 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…8c6cbacked Yes | 22c | 95,400$21,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,001.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 24c | 91,873$22,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,182.87 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ac…c125backed Yes | 28c | 88,657$24,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,890.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…63cdbacked Yes | 30c | 86,987$26,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,045.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…2b6dbacked Yes | 24c | 72,017$17,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,429.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…73cebacked Yes | 26c | 71,403$18,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,564.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…1c18backed Yes | 28c | 70,406$20,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,053.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 26c | 57,592$14,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,786.13 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…3614backed Yes | 25c | 57,280$14,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,519.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f9b5backed Yes | 24c | 54,673$13,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,095.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd90…c8e0backed Yes | 28c | 50,417$14,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…9b3ebacked Yes | 27c | 50,000$13,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 26c | 49,432$12,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,835.95 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…9034backed Yes | 22c | 49,057$10,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,771.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 24c | 48,200$11,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,496 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…81d5backed Yes | 24c | 47,109$11,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,194.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…2733backed Yes | 24c | 45,776$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 24c | 43,437$10,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,331.15 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 41,597$31,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,821.95 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 22c | 34,000$7,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,330 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…a7bdbacked Yes | 22c | 32,048$7,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,150.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 26c | 27,866$7,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,232.55 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…ff0abacked Yes | 19c | 26,615$4,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,994.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…3930backed Yes | 25c | 25,000$6,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…313dbacked Yes | 25c | 23,583$5,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,895.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…e314backed Yes | 24c | 23,375$5,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,696.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e5…cb71backed Yes | 27c | 23,320$6,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,310.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cd…247bbacked Yes | 24c | 23,052$5,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,646.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a60…c835backed Yes | 20c | 22,711$4,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,559.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 13c | 22,000$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed Yes | 26c | 21,373$5,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,599.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb367…3f7cbacked Yes | 25c | 21,089$5,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,183.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 24c | 20,289$4,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,878.03 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…3e34backed Yes | 17c | 20,115$3,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,490 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 26c | 20,010$5,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,202.61 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 27c | 20,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc47b…d74fbacked Yes | 24c | 20,000$4,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,755.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aac…1fd9backed Yes | 26c | 19,640$5,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,102.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…fcf5backed Yes | 29c | 19,053$5,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,522.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 28c | 18,230$5,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,018.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…ada2backed Yes | 28c | 17,896$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab1…2110backed Yes | 0c | 17,570$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…b48dbacked Yes | 24c | 17,538$4,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,283.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…db09backed Yes | 29c | 17,292$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 7c | 16,550$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 30c | 16,484$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 28c | 16,194$4,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,581.72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 21c | 15,000$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 27c | 14,500$3,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,915 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e18…1201backed Yes | 28c | 14,415$4,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,036.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 29c | 14,000$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a58…a860backed Yes | 28c | 13,369$3,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,740 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b65…eeb5backed Yes | 12c | 13,094$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb137…66c8backed Yes | 25c | 13,000$3,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…64b0backed Yes | 23c | 12,900$3,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,012.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 26c | 12,676$3,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,338.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…7312backed Yes | 23c | 12,180$2,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,840 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c8…47c1backed Yes | 25c | 11,600$2,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,847.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…6552backed Yes | 28c | 11,448$3,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,171 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…beafbacked Yes | 28c | 10,700$2,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,987.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…76bfbacked Yes | 28c | 10,610$2,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,932.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 22c | 10,316$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.59 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes | 27c | 10,000$2,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,653.58 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016a…9840backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa522…2b67backed Yes | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…b969backed Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1949…515ebacked Yes | 16c | 9,900$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 27c | 9,573$2,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,551.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…df2abacked Yes | 23c | 9,184$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba77…b8babacked Yes | 29c | 9,161$2,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,613.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445a…9465backed Yes | 27c | 8,435$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…dd76backed Yes | 30c | 8,369$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…a2e5backed Yes | 37c | 8,071$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked No | 72c | 8,000$5,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +253.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a7…bedabacked Yes | 27c | 7,415$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…e6c6backed Yes | 27c | 7,330$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,083$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 16c | 7,081$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 7,081$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.5 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Yes | 28c | 7,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +78%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…334abacked Yes | 29c | 6,942$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,689$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.78 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…7f95backed Yes | 30c | 6,667$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…e629backed Yes | 22c | 6,665$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked No | 76c | 6,399$4,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…2d99backed Yes | 23c | 6,235$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…e656backed Yes | 32c | 6,220$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked Yes | 25c | 6,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 26c | 5,969$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.05 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6666…f5e9backed Yes | 29c | 5,606$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed No | 72c | 5,555$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 21c | 5,400$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 12c | 5,391$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.81 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 28c | 5,367$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.89 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D Housethis page
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: OtherNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HouseYes won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.