Us Politics · resolved market
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78e20dcb15d578061a6df0c5014d66cc21244bad6848336f3513493c65cf09c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,322,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,388,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,322,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 806 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 15c | 328,681$50,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,349.6 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 13c | 324,708$43,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,184.98 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…cd67backed Yes | 9c | 239,663$20,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,465.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…ed91backed Yes | 0c | 236,703$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 2c | 232,427$5,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,030.04 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…bac2backed Yes | 8c | 228,193$19,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,381.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes | 15c | 203,871$30,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,179.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9df8backed Yes | 2c | 163,988$3,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,088.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…1e69backed Yes | 15c | 162,929$24,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,011.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 1c | 148,942$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.01 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 15c | 140,473$21,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,395.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b2…4243backed Yes | 15c | 131,717$19,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,617.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b9…5853backed Yes | 0c | 105,810$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…63cdbacked Yes | 17c | 103,494$17,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,861.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…36e7backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…5608backed Yes | 16c | 100,000$16,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…e1ebbacked Yes | 15c | 100,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…8bdbbacked Yes | 13c | 100,000$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 0c | 99,999$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a60…c835backed Yes | 14c | 99,488$13,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,643.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Yes | 15c | 93,977$14,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,096.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 21c | 86,079$18,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,416.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2a…457fbacked Yes | 0c | 82,740$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…5101backed Yes | 43c | 73,433$31,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,490.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f8…e261backed Yes | 38c | 70,471$26,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,504.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 15c | 61,481$9,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,253.41 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 2c | 57,075$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.13 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66af…d58ebacked Yes | 15c | 57,000$8,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…f89dbacked Yes | 3c | 54,110$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…3a0bbacked Yes | 19c | 53,881$9,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,998.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…2fbcbacked Yes | 5c | 52,655$2,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,627.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 16c | 44,399$7,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,003.24 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…ff0abacked Yes | 16c | 41,924$6,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,507.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d79…1b73backed Yes | 1c | 41,200$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Yes | 14c | 40,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…7595backed Yes | 7c | 37,800$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa522…2b67backed Yes | 13c | 36,907$4,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,956.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…74ebbacked Yes | 18c | 36,854$6,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,730.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 14c | 35,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes | 4c | 34,671$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 14c | 33,762$4,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,809.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 26c | 33,629$8,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,798.34 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked No | 49c | 33,190$16,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,951.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…85cebacked Yes | 15c | 30,750$4,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,612.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 2c | 29,793$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.57 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…abb1backed Yes | 13c | 28,392$3,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,732.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…e7aebacked Yes | 14c | 28,036$3,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,957.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 26,900$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.8 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf34…8816backed Yes | 8c | 26,483$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…64b0backed Yes | 9c | 25,617$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 15c | 24,954$3,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,742.64 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…3614backed Yes | 15c | 23,980$3,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,597 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…5ba2backed Yes | 6c | 23,865$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da1…7086backed Yes | 15c | 22,628$3,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,284.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a8…730fbacked Yes | 17c | 22,454$3,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,766.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 6c | 22,348$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.19 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 21c | 21,796$4,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,587.16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 8c | 20,893$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.72 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Yes | 13c | 20,097$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,694.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 11c | 20,000$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 4c | 20,000$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 72c | 20,000$14,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,600 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…6aadbacked Yes | 15c | 20,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…38dbbacked Yes | 15c | 20,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…bb6ebacked Yes | 1c | 19,686$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 16c | 18,871$3,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.38 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0d…6c83backed Yes | 46c | 18,378$8,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,488.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 16c | 18,299$2,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,897.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585e…bd59backed Yes | 18c | 18,000$3,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,222.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…d0c5backed Yes | 15c | 17,888$2,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,665.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…4d4abacked Yes | 22c | 17,810$3,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,905.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 17c | 16,853$2,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,847.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…0d05backed Yes | 20c | 16,536$3,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,301.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421c…40cebacked Yes | 25c | 16,285$4,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,150.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…7eb7backed Yes | 10c | 15,427$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 4c | 15,320$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 15,292$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.94 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…002bbacked Yes | 14c | 15,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…b44ebacked Yes | 14c | 14,620$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,111.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 3c | 14,258$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.13 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadef…d83cbacked Yes | 0c | 14,120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 10c | 13,794$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.38 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes | 13c | 13,755$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…3980backed Yes | 15c | 13,673$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 3c | 13,421$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.96 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…d3b1backed Yes | 22c | 13,350$2,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,891.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 13c | 13,270$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.08 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…40a3backed Yes | 2c | 13,027$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…5845backed Yes | 4c | 12,550$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…6870backed Yes | 40c | 12,401$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…01b3backed Yes | 16c | 12,270$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 2c | 12,222$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.44 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…6815backed Yes | 30c | 12,198$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…fe84backed Yes | 14c | 12,000$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…14a7backed Yes | 13c | 11,766$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 7c | 11,614$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.49 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5667…837cbacked Yes | 31c | 11,400$3,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,522 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 14c | 11,220$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd375…6637backed Yes | 0c | 10,947$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed2…e914backed Yes | 16c | 10,612$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D Housethis page
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: OtherNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HouseYes won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.