TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R House

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,546,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,425,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,546,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 429 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5431…47e1backed Yes4c560,010$23,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,591.691241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+65.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes6c287,413$15,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,889.3813540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a7…438dbacked Yes5c218,576$11,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,138.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes5c210,758$11,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,241.21156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9623…8cdfbacked Yes5c184,419$9,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,615.75520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a7…bedabacked Yes7c151,563$9,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,94220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67aa…30a6backed Yes6c139,606$7,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,88560%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdba6…0218backed Yes1c110,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4a2…63cdbacked Yes7c92,162$6,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,291.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes4c74,844$3,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,357.0417225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2961…bac2backed Yes9c61,685$5,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,806.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes5c52,664$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.88170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5031…db09backed Yes10c52,279$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f3…c4a6backed Yes8c51,199$4,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,029.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes6c42,078$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.1110749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c38,588$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,947.2896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf34…8816backed Yes5c37,363$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.731216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc5…df2abacked Yes6c36,979$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4deb…89e7backed Yes4c36,100$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.17812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-79.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ba…759ebacked Yes11c35,816$3,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x831b…eed5backed Yes4c35,584$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3801723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes5c35,265$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.681323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a44…3614backed Yes6c35,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes5c34,359$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.987133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2012…a7bdbacked Yes6c32,084$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,872.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes5c32,077$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.041010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-75.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes5c30,012$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.623935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe22a…ada2backed Yes12c25,398$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d1…1a60backed Yes5c25,238$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.5390%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6335…15e1backed Yes6c25,197$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c1…437dbacked Yes5c23,705$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad7…4bc9backed Yes4c23,278$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes6c23,000$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.9915646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes5c22,756$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.324542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x001c…5ab8backed Yes6c22,435$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e74…71bbbacked Yes5c20,840$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf684…0166backed Yes6c20,361$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb0e…41aebacked Yes7c19,131$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.8850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes4c17,284$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.58234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes5c17,249$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.66200%0 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba77…b8babacked Yes4c16,463$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7885…eeaebacked Yes4c16,424$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.221752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes4c16,263$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.6815332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes5c16,110$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.11316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed Yes5c15,234$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.293737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed Yes5c15,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7804247.6%20 W · 22 L+6.9wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+68.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes6c14,917$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.0780%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9acc…8328backed Yes5c14,768$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed Yes6c14,757$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes6c13,391$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.46425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked Yes6c13,276$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.512650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes4c13,216$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.934057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb53c…cce1backed Yes8c13,199$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes4c12,006$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.186021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes4c11,708$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.753435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84de…b018backed Yes5c10,384$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.7470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1919…cbdcbacked Yes5c10,318$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8c…3e34backed Yes5c10,252$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.86120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dce…b793backed Yes7c10,078$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c5…70d9backed Yes5c10,007$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes5c10,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5203218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf1…d523backed Yes5c10,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes6c10,000$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.758547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ca…334abacked Yes5c9,409$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.8730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb98…8bfdbacked Yes4c9,277$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.71618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes5c9,154$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-90.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes4c8,879$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.6811848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b03…8c26backed Yes6c8,786$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab1…2110backed Yes0c8,763$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes6c8,616$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.351711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-78.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4137…0db1backed Yes5c8,551$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44080%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…63a3backed Yes4c8,341$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-86.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f91…d1fabacked Yes6c8,330$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked Yes6c7,684$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.62810.7%3 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes5c7,564$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.932138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9636…18d4backed Yes5c7,511$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c18…49efbacked Yes5c7,381$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.44119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96cb…6cf3backed Yes5c7,210$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcdd…6f83backed Yes5c7,000$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes5c6,346$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce68…8c13backed Yes5c6,264$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Yes5c6,026$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.681338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+68.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6deb…e5b0backed Yes4c6,000$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd4…0b7bbacked Yes6c5,785$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.51616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-74.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ddd…6fb3backed Yes9c5,744$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.7340%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes6c5,555$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.5311336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes7c5,515$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.291007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes4c5,462$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.093135.5%11 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes4c5,395$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.117420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed1a…6c60backed Yes6c5,365$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb620…dd7abacked Yes5c5,021$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca6…6b28backed Yes3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4042…058fbacked Yes3c5,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x529c…2ea9backed Yes6c5,000$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Yes5c5,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb09e…ee4bbacked Yes29c4,780$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a28…e629backed Yes5c4,776$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes4c4,390$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.558219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x708f…f236backed Yes4c4,348$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.16812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.