Us Politics · resolved market
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R House
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x007915eaf3a6c3c7f2c28a3f4984e257b69489defc4e2db834a1418ad9b433f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,546,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,425,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,546,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 429 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 4c | 560,010$23,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,591.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 6c | 287,413$15,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,889.38 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…438dbacked Yes | 5c | 218,576$11,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,138.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes | 5c | 210,758$11,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,241.21 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…8cdfbacked Yes | 5c | 184,419$9,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,615.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a7…bedabacked Yes | 7c | 151,563$9,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,942 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67aa…30a6backed Yes | 6c | 139,606$7,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,885 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 1c | 110,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…63cdbacked Yes | 7c | 92,162$6,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,291.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 74,844$3,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,357.04 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…bac2backed Yes | 9c | 61,685$5,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,806.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 5c | 52,664$2,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,837.88 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…db09backed Yes | 10c | 52,279$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f3…c4a6backed Yes | 8c | 51,199$4,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,029.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 6c | 42,078$2,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,413.11 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 38,588$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.28 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf34…8816backed Yes | 5c | 37,363$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.73 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…df2abacked Yes | 6c | 36,979$2,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4deb…89e7backed Yes | 4c | 36,100$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…759ebacked Yes | 11c | 35,816$3,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,997 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 4c | 35,584$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 5c | 35,265$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…3614backed Yes | 6c | 35,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 5c | 34,359$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.98 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…a7bdbacked Yes | 6c | 32,084$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 5c | 32,077$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 5c | 30,012$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.62 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…ada2backed Yes | 12c | 25,398$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 5c | 25,238$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…15e1backed Yes | 6c | 25,197$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…437dbacked Yes | 5c | 23,705$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad7…4bc9backed Yes | 4c | 23,278$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 6c | 23,000$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.99 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 5c | 22,756$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.32 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…5ab8backed Yes | 6c | 22,435$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e74…71bbbacked Yes | 5c | 20,840$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…0166backed Yes | 6c | 20,361$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0e…41aebacked Yes | 7c | 19,131$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 4c | 17,284$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.58 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 17,249$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.66 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba77…b8babacked Yes | 4c | 16,463$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 4c | 16,424$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 4c | 16,263$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.68 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 5c | 16,110$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.11 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 5c | 15,234$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.29 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Yes | 5c | 15,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 6c | 14,917$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…8328backed Yes | 5c | 14,768$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 6c | 14,757$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 6c | 13,391$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 6c | 13,276$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.51 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 4c | 13,216$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.93 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…cce1backed Yes | 8c | 13,199$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 4c | 12,006$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.18 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 4c | 11,708$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.75 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84de…b018backed Yes | 5c | 10,384$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…cbdcbacked Yes | 5c | 10,318$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…3e34backed Yes | 5c | 10,252$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.86 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dce…b793backed Yes | 7c | 10,078$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…70d9backed Yes | 5c | 10,007$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf1…d523backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.75 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…334abacked Yes | 5c | 9,409$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…8bfdbacked Yes | 4c | 9,277$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.7 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 5c | 9,154$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 4c | 8,879$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.68 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b03…8c26backed Yes | 6c | 8,786$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab1…2110backed Yes | 0c | 8,763$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes | 6c | 8,616$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.35 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…0db1backed Yes | 5c | 8,551$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 4c | 8,341$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f91…d1fabacked Yes | 6c | 8,330$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 6c | 7,684$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.6 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes | 5c | 7,564$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…18d4backed Yes | 5c | 7,511$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 5c | 7,381$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96cb…6cf3backed Yes | 5c | 7,210$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…6f83backed Yes | 5c | 7,000$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes | 5c | 6,346$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…8c13backed Yes | 5c | 6,264$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 5c | 6,026$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…e5b0backed Yes | 4c | 6,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…0b7bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,785$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddd…6fb3backed Yes | 9c | 5,744$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 6c | 5,555$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.53 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 7c | 5,515$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.29 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 4c | 5,462$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.09 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 4c | 5,395$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.11 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1a…6c60backed Yes | 6c | 5,365$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked Yes | 5c | 5,021$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…058fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…2ea9backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09e…ee4bbacked Yes | 29c | 4,780$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…e629backed Yes | 5c | 4,776$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 4c | 4,390$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.55 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed Yes | 4c | 4,348$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R Housethis page
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: OtherNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HouseYes won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.