Us Politics · resolved market
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96f6fb6567b5938fc3c2e75f9829d7287340b9581a9c4817b8bc0aff82e1c45f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,132,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,496,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,132,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,903 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…594fbacked Yes | 47c | 733,595$342,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391,274.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7058…3505backed Yes | 35c | 353,648$123,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230,365.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 36c | 276,520$98,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177,932.78 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 56c | 144,880$81,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,767.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b2…4243backed Yes | 37c | 131,716$49,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,611.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf34…8816backed No | 7c | 114,761$8,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,235.42 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…2591backed No | 70c | 107,612$75,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…cf04backed No | 70c | 103,309$72,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,647.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…3a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 97,254$40,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,219.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…01adbacked Yes | 30c | 96,052$28,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,092.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +231.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…ff0abacked No | 62c | 95,724$59,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,676.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…89e4backed Yes | 37c | 91,471$34,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,394.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 29c | 91,123$26,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,474.19 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 32c | 84,894$26,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,125.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked Yes | 66c | 77,979$51,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,692.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 58c | 73,047$42,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,630.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 38c | 70,001$26,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,528.55 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes | 31c | 63,492$19,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,035.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…1ad2backed Yes | 46c | 61,932$28,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,355.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 33cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…a8ebbacked Yes | 39c | 60,403$23,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,046.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 42c | 59,305$24,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,354.96 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 67c | 58,338$39,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,068.87 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 30c | 56,401$16,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,411.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 52,019$30,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,610.57 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…e7aebacked Yes | 31c | 46,490$14,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,237.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 29c | 46,201$13,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,802.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…68cdbacked No | 9c | 43,248$3,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,924.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f8…e261backed Yes | 49c | 42,236$20,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,741.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 50c | 41,255$20,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,659.24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…9034backed No | 60c | 40,530$24,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,495.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…8da9backed No | 52c | 38,400$19,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,968 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 9c | 37,985$3,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,414.88 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4315…992cbacked Yes | 58c | 37,507$21,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,752.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 62c | 36,937$22,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,743.94 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…74ebbacked Yes | 39c | 36,892$14,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,484.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes | 39c | 36,432$14,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,281.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d9…d82fbacked No | 38c | 35,460$13,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,423.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 62c | 35,151$21,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,780.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 35,034$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.07 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9df8backed No | 4c | 34,177$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc087…fed5backed No | 56c | 30,730$17,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,157.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked No | 66c | 30,493$20,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,125.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 56cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…2af4backed Yes | 73c | 27,970$20,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,675.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…0d63backed No | 61c | 27,804$16,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,890.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e43…d68ebacked Yes | 38c | 27,030$10,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,666.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5c…7833backed Yes | 44c | 26,200$11,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,559.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…cd67backed Yes | 46c | 24,677$11,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,331 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 29c | 24,532$7,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,417.49 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b6…9fd7backed Yes | 42c | 22,043$9,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,679.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed No | 73c | 21,459$15,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,741.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…e1ebbacked Yes | 41c | 20,796$8,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,246.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…71acbacked No | 31c | 20,589$6,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,385.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…44c4backed Yes | 39c | 20,450$8,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,437.02 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 79c | 20,000$15,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…b44ebacked Yes | 45c | 19,404$8,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,657.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…1015backed No | 24c | 19,281$4,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,595.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes | 79c | 18,696$14,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,918.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed No | 21c | 18,655$3,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,895.38 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…4e85backed No | 61c | 18,607$11,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,349.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…01c0backed No | 54c | 18,563$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…7595backed Yes | 44c | 18,233$8,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,141.77 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585e…bd59backed Yes | 31c | 18,000$5,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,420 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 6c | 17,310$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.62 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5be…ee79backed No | 33c | 16,779$5,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked No | 63c | 16,500$10,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,394.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0120…b177backed No | 52c | 16,350$8,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,566 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a40…d801backed Yes | 71c | 16,097$11,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,608.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f9b5backed No | 54c | 15,749$8,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,566.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…8722backed Yes | 39c | 15,537$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,537.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +267.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…1807backed No | 4c | 15,426$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…4699backed Yes | 31c | 15,401$4,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,599.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…742fbacked Yes | 76c | 15,052$11,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,644.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…6aadbacked Yes | 47c | 15,007$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,006.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 22c | 14,938$3,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,353.71 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes | 36c | 13,751$4,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,854.59 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…cf5ebacked No | 41c | 13,406$5,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,503.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…cbdcbacked Yes | 34c | 13,235$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,735.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…7609backed Yes | 38c | 13,163$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,163.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked No | 65c | 12,769$8,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,309.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…8b4bbacked Yes | 38c | 12,335$4,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,647.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 58c | 12,319$7,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,144.81 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…e6c6backed No | 64c | 12,280$7,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,822.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7001…8b29backed No | 62c | 12,231$7,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,582.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 51c | 12,158$6,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,976.61 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes | 38c | 12,026$4,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,438.16 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…77f9backed Yes | 40c | 11,976$4,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,185.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…3614backed Yes | 40c | 11,934$4,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,160.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 41c | 11,759$4,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,949.29 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 31c | 11,718$3,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,055.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…d6bdbacked Yes | 44c | 11,442$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,442.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 11,000$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.5 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…ed05backed Yes | 49c | 10,790$5,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,473.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed No | 53c | 10,764$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,704.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…76bebacked No | 58c | 10,744$6,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,249.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb386…d78abacked Yes | 48c | 10,581$5,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,502.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 70c | 10,491$7,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,293.29 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0397…000dbacked No | 53c | 10,472$5,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…b1bcbacked Yes | 43c | 10,471$4,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,996.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…5709backed Yes | 31c | 10,300$3,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,100.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa105…efaabacked Yes | 42c | 10,295$4,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,020.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R Housethis page
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: OtherNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.