Us Politics · resolved market
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D House
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbecefa16a7a3531950c1b5f327a83ad0fdf448bea6f4ec7bc5b913f89ad3b05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,481,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,150,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,481,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6a2…6aadbacked Yes | 1c | 289,040$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e74…71bbbacked Yes | 1c | 241,057$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 210,821$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.12 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 183,281$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.97 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 1c | 178,535$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.22 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…69a4backed Yes | 1c | 146,676$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b2…4243backed Yes | 1c | 131,716$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…a89dbacked Yes | 1c | 92,136$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 86,648$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.44 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 1c | 81,947$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.71 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c62…cb79backed Yes | 1c | 71,202$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…63cdbacked Yes | 1c | 71,023$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 68,285$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 1c | 62,252$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.84 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 58,999$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 1c | 58,738$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67aa…30a6backed Yes | 1c | 50,486$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…800bbacked Yes | 1c | 50,088$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 1c | 47,430$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.08 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…6b0bbacked Yes | 1c | 46,084$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…5b75backed Yes | 1c | 45,468$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…3264backed Yes | 1c | 45,435$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…e835backed Yes | 1c | 43,145$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 1c | 41,803$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…6f21backed Yes | 1c | 38,485$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…74ebbacked Yes | 1c | 36,892$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 1c | 36,258$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 1c | 35,767$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 1c | 34,383$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…01b3backed Yes | 1c | 29,913$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 1c | 29,173$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 27,402$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.81 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…4699backed Yes | 0c | 25,676$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 1c | 25,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4deb…89e7backed Yes | 1c | 23,132$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 1c | 18,854$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.83 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 1c | 18,145$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585e…bd59backed Yes | 1c | 18,000$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…7595backed Yes | 1c | 16,400$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…e7aebacked Yes | 1c | 16,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…6ce1backed Yes | 1c | 15,720$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…b1bfbacked Yes | 1c | 14,909$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa716…cc8cbacked Yes | 1c | 14,722$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e3…6b1dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,722$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b25…5593backed Yes | 1c | 14,722$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcf…3882backed Yes | 1c | 14,654$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…5d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,654$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e002backed Yes | 1c | 14,558$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes | 1c | 14,403$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 1c | 13,275$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…05efbacked Yes | 1c | 13,213$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…64b0backed Yes | 1c | 12,808$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…39f2backed Yes | 1c | 12,610$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…65febacked Yes | 1c | 12,503$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,744$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d7…7341backed Yes | 1c | 11,400$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…450cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,244$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a20…4a07backed Yes | 1c | 11,211$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…bcb9backed Yes | 1c | 11,167$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…23f6backed Yes | 1c | 11,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…2a95backed Yes | 1c | 10,791$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8a…f1a3backed Yes | 1c | 10,682$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 10,475$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…6d8abacked Yes | 1c | 10,337$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…dd6fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,269$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1e…34dcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa522…2b67backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c6…8908backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 1c | 9,058$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,735$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 1c | 8,033$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…7647backed Yes | 1c | 7,781$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…923dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,624$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 1c | 7,385$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3360…acacbacked Yes | 1c | 6,667$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…0c88backed Yes | 1c | 6,475$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed Yes | 1c | 6,472$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…4760backed Yes | 1c | 6,464$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…4ea9backed Yes | 1c | 6,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…11fdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,051$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb44…6d62backed Yes | 1c | 5,985$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 1c | 5,972$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…da58backed Yes | 1c | 5,969$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed Yes | 1c | 5,846$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…b497backed Yes | 1c | 5,582$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…710cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…92b5backed Yes | 1c | 5,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Yes | 1c | 5,429$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8ad0backed Yes | 1c | 5,377$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,332$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…b38bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,224$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0a…24d9backed Yes | 1c | 5,150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1a…6c60backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…f148backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…9c69backed Yes | 1c | 4,800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 1c | 4,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D Housethis page
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: OtherNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HouseYes won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.