TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D House

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,481,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,150,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,481,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb6a2…6aadbacked Yes1c289,040$3,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,044520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-57.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e74…71bbbacked Yes1c241,057$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c210,821$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.12287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c183,281$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.976021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes1c178,535$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918.227041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9152…69a4backed Yes1c146,676$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b2…4243backed Yes1c131,716$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.35520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdba6…0218backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20fb…a89dbacked Yes1c92,136$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes1c86,648$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.44110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes1c81,947$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.71234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c62…cb79backed Yes1c71,202$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa4a2…63cdbacked Yes1c71,023$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fa…23e1backed Yes1c68,285$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked Yes1c62,252$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.842810.7%3 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c58,999$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes1c58,738$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-90.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67aa…30a6backed Yes1c50,486$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd2…800bbacked Yes1c50,088$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Yes1c47,430$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.084052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b1…6b0bbacked Yes1c46,084$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c82…5b75backed Yes1c45,468$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bde…3264backed Yes1c45,435$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc7…e835backed Yes1c43,145$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes1c41,803$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.6480%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe812…6f21backed Yes1c38,485$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x587a…74ebbacked Yes1c36,892$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.56425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-36%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e2…0f38backed Yes1c36,258$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.981811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes1c35,767$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x831b…eed5backed Yes1c34,383$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x025b…01b3backed Yes1c29,913$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb228…2734backed Yes1c29,173$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.4940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c27,402$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.812847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…4699backed Yes0c25,676$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.71442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+84.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes1c25,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4deb…89e7backed Yes1c23,132$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.59812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-79.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes1c18,854$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8313540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…63a3backed Yes1c18,145$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-86.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x585e…bd59backed Yes1c18,000$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.38425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9151…7595backed Yes1c16,400$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.11414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d36…e7aebacked Yes1c16,000$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90cb…6ce1backed Yes1c15,720$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e8…b1bfbacked Yes1c14,909$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-72.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa716…cc8cbacked Yes1c14,722$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72e3…6b1dbacked Yes1c14,722$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b25…5593backed Yes1c14,722$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bcf…3882backed Yes1c14,654$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x767e…5d2dbacked Yes1c14,654$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfacf…e002backed Yes1c14,558$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.02520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes1c14,403$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.821216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes1c13,275$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.021811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4e…05efbacked Yes1c13,213$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd47a…64b0backed Yes1c12,808$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.31812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-81.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c6e…39f2backed Yes1c12,610$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda03…65febacked Yes1c12,503$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes1c11,744$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.25156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d7…7341backed Yes1c11,400$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x327f…450cbacked Yes1c11,244$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a20…4a07backed Yes1c11,211$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…bcb9backed Yes1c11,167$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb5…23f6backed Yes1c11,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a45…4a71backed Yes1c11,000$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7790%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…2a95backed Yes1c10,791$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f8a…f1a3backed Yes1c10,682$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c10,475$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf01…6d8abacked Yes1c10,337$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x148e…dd6fbacked Yes1c10,269$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes1c10,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d1e…34dcbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa522…2b67backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes1c9,058$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.767128.2%20 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c8,735$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.592400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x675c…2224backed Yes1c8,033$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-59.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd14c…7647backed Yes1c7,781$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c96…923dbacked Yes1c7,624$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes1c7,385$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.083135.5%11 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3360…acacbacked Yes1c6,667$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff2b…0c88backed Yes1c6,475$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.123327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x708f…f236backed Yes1c6,472$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.19812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ad9…4760backed Yes1c6,464$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.52812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf804…4ea9backed Yes1c6,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…11fdbacked Yes1c6,051$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes1c6,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332737%10 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+58.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb44…6d62backed Yes1c5,985$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes1c5,972$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.064318.6%8 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274b…da58backed Yes1c5,969$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.65110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc411…caa7backed Yes1c5,846$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.291711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-73.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d80…b497backed Yes1c5,582$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e0b…710cbacked Yes1c5,556$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a0…92b5backed Yes1c5,556$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c76…ded5backed Yes1c5,429$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.86185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-91.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb856…8ad0backed Yes1c5,377$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes1c5,332$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb2…b38bbacked Yes1c5,224$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3580%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0a…24d9backed Yes1c5,150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.270%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed1a…6c60backed Yes1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ebb…f148backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a3…9c69backed Yes1c4,800$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c18…49efbacked Yes1c4,500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.